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 Post subject: Week 15 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:56 pm 
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2-1 last week, only Fargo with the let down... not really sure what's up with them but they are league worst in turnovers so I guess they need to just be better.

Anyway, on to week 15 with an eye on teams I don't typically look at:
Las Vegas (-10) at Tuscon - I'm not sure what's going on here, but TUC has been playing very well in the last 4 weeks. 2 wins and 2 extremely close losses, one of them against DET are a stark contrast to their 9 earlier games where they looked the weakest team in the CFL. This appears to coincide with a heavier reliance on first overall pick, rookie RB Duane Johnson. Though he has gotten the lion's share of the carries and done efficient work, the team as a whole is towards the lower end of the league run/pass split. It's a bit strange since QB Jim O'Neill has shown a bit of regression in his sophomore year, but perhaps the GM sverngold has recognized that now.

LVS has risen to the top of the Ring of Fire division with HON turning into a dumpster fire, but I think they're still somewhat mediocre and you can see that in their opponents' record of 78-91. They're not playing very good teams, but you can only play the guys on your schedule and at least they're winning. I've said a lot about their defensive front and I think that the good run of form for TUC will end here as the insanely talented duo of Johnstone and Anagnostis will shut down Johnson and really get after O'Neill. 24-10 LVS, LVS to cover the -10.

San Antonio (-5) at New Orleans - SAN gets an "easier" matchup on their quest for a WC spot this week and I'm a little suspicious about this spread. Yeah, it's a road game, but it's in the same time zone and quite a few fans from SAN will probably be in the stands. QB Sammie England and RB Ethan Lovallo lead a conservative, but efficient, offense. They rarely turn the ball over and the team is very consistent as a result-- beating the teams that they should, but losing to the elite teams and sometimes quite badly.

I think if they were to be a little more aggressive and throw downfield more often, they'd be a very exciting team to watch. Their receivers are getting a bit long in the tooth however, and Lovallo has been their most consistent target as a result. That being said, NOS is a team that is struggling mightily and hasn't been able to find many wins this season. Every facet of their game needs retooling in the offseason and SAN shouldn't have any problems winning and covering here. 33-21 SAN.

Death Valley (-2) at Santa Cruz - No other way to put this really, the San Andres division is an absolute mess. No team has a winning record and it's looking like the division champ will have at best an 8-8 record. That being said, there appears to be some value here. DVY has pulled out huge wins against both FAR and TEN and they look poised to notch another win here.

SCU has fallen into hard times recently, posting consecutive losing seasonos since 2053 when QB Brayden Dunn was drafted and the team changed ownership. Dunn's QBR has never been higher than during his rookie season and his deteriorating play is still a mystery. I think other teams have figured out that he loves throwing to WR Graham George and the secondaries have keyed in. In the past two seasons, George was top 10 in targets, but posted some of the lowest catch percentages in that same group.

I expect DVY to use their top ranked secondary and blanket George from kickoff and force SCU to explore other targets. QB Buckley is 7-4 against SCU and I think it'll be 8-4 after this week. 27-21 DVY, though this division is an absolute fiesta and really anything can happen.

Picks:
LVS -10
SAN -5
DVY -2

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 Post subject: Re: Week 15 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:30 pm 
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zenzog wrote:
24-10 LVS, LVS to cover the -10.


Picks:
LVS -10
SAN -5
DVY -2


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 Post subject: Re: Week 15 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:34 am 
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1-2 on the week :(
SAN dropped the ball, choked a 17-10 lead in the 4th qtr...
LVS never made it to cover town...

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 Post subject: Re: Week 15 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:43 am 
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Location: Poplar Grove, IL
zenzog wrote:
1-2 on the week :(
SAN dropped the ball, choked a 17-10 lead in the 4th qtr...
LVS never made it to cover town...


We are in Vegas, so we know where the sharp money is - I'm not saying, just saying...

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 Post subject: Re: Week 15 Betting Preview
PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:10 pm 

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