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 Post subject: 2058 Betting Preview - Week 13
PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:55 pm 
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Getting into the home stretch now... I'll be focusing on teams that could actually make the playoffs since motivation is a pretty big deal.

Durham at Iowa City (-2) - In a must win game for both teams with playoff aspirations, a wildcard spot is up for grabs. The two teams are on the same trajectory, but DUR is probably punching above their weight class while IWC is fully competitive and ready to go.

Rookie Travis Ortiz has been great through the first half of the season but has hit a wall in his last three games. Though they won in SHR, it wasn't due to Ortiz's play-- and in losses to STL and ATL, Ortiz was woefully ineffective, combining for 26 completions on 67 attempts. I'm not optimistic about his chances against a talented IWC secondary in CB Emmons, SS Coffey, and FS Richardson, but the Soldiers haven't exactly been stellar during their front office woes. The coaching and game planning looks out of sync and I would wager that they will continue underperforming significantly relative to their personnel. Their defensive front in particular is one of the worst at defending the run and I suspect moving Scottie Buchanan from DE to LB is partly responsible.

I like RB Arnold to have a nice day rushing the ball and carrying the Bulldogs to a win on the road. 24-17 DUR.

New Orleans (-2) at Hartford - The Voodoo were on one of the hottest stretches in the CFL in weeks 5-10 but have since cooled down. A loss against TEN might've been anticipated had WR Picton been at full strength, but it was clear he wasn't 100% and still picked up 6 catches for 71 yards and a TD. Stopping the run was a real problem for NOS against TEN and ORE and fortunately, they shouldn't have that issue against HAR.

2058 and likely 2059 are dedicated to rookie QB Branden Barker's development and with HAR eliminated from playoff contention for all intents and purposes, I expect they'll rest their banged up first rounder. The team still has teeth, particularly against the pass, and I hope the Voodoo offensive line can navigate the minefield that is DEs Rutherford and Nielson.

Look for RB Mueller to feature heavily to mitigate the pass rush and give me NOS as short favorites on the road against a team with effectively nothing to play for. 27-20 NOS.

Honolulu at Miami (-2) - The wildcard hunt continues with this matchup of middling teams. MIA has somehow found 4 consecutive wins to put themselves in the conversation, but injuries to key pieces in LG Dunn, DE Nichols, and most importantly WRs Kemp and Keeler may have already shut that door. Third year QB Jessie Hughes basically has no one to pass to... Bordano I guess? The rushing attack will need to be effective this week and RB Holmes has not shown himself to be a bellcow back. The backup situation is thin here too.

Surprisingly, HON is still in contention in the West and the fantastic performance of backfield duo RB Gaiter and FB Orlando is one reason for that. The other reason is that their opponents are inept or inconsistent. I don't really know how LAS got swept by this team, but HON is alive because of it. There's really not much else to say other than I do like how DEs Maxwell and Bilodeau are playing.

I'm not sure which team I'd want in the playoffs more because neither team inspires confidence, but I'd give MIA the nod in this matchup. The defense ought to hold HON down... I just hope the offense has something left in the tank. 17-10 MIA.

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 Post subject: Re: 2058 Betting Preview - Week 13
PostPosted: Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:19 pm 
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Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:19 pm
Posts: 234
Thanks for the write up, I had missed it. Luckily because it may have jinxed me. LOL

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