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 Post subject: 2059 Betting Preview - Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:10 am 
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The 2059 season is finally upon us after a COVID-58 related break and the sportsbooks are desperate for tickets. Early season plays are tough, but I'll make my usual three previews and picks because I'm a degenerate.

Omaha (-2) at Baltimore - BAL boasts some of the biggest offseason moves for 2059, acquiring both QB O'Neill from TUC and hall of fame DE Malachi Johnstone from LVS. Both of these moves are huge boosts and this early season line reflects that optimism. O'Neill and Johnstone have looked good in limited play this preseason and first round pick FS Alex Leskun looks to improve an already top notch passing defense. DE Garrett Hitchcock has said he feels better at this weight and, now that BAL has implemented a more familiar 3-4 system, looks to have a bigger impact in his sophomore year.

OMA hasn't had to make big changes. The offensive juggernaut has been dishing out big contracts to their stars and we'll see the return of all the players that haunt defensive coordinators' nightmares. WR Dole, Stone, and TE Duran will all be Arrowheads until 2062. Rookies DE Ike Paton and LT Drake Shaw could have some snaps this game but I don't expect too much after their preseason showings.

My contacts have called this a classic "Sharps vs. Squares" game with 80% of the ticket count on OMA. However, the line has actually ticked up from -3 to -2 with big money on BAL and it's not hard to see why. The last two times OMA has come to BAL, they've been held to season low offensive production, and I would back the home team Bombers this week. BAL to win 17-13.

El Paso at Fargo (-5) - These division rivalries are getting a bit more interesting now that ELP is starting to win. The regular season sweep by ELP was ruined a bit by the loss in the postseason, but if not for FAR CB Zimmerman's heroic interception it was looking like another Rockets win.

GM landshark44 is trying to capitalize on the shifting power balance and has mortgaged the team's future for this run in 2059, trading 5 first round picks for WRs Jeffrey Johnstone (from DUR) and Winfred Rodriguez (from BOS). TE McKenzie was QB Sullivan's favorite target in 2058 but that may change in 2059. A number of FAs also look to bolster the team as DE Grayson Ellison, SS Clay Bech, and OG Gerald Blades have seen first team reps.

The Sodbusters, just like OMA, have stayed relatively intact. Investing in QB Woodard, WR Crabtree, and DE Alexander doesn't leave much room for free agents or other acquisitions. There are a few promising rookies coming to FAR but it remains to be seen how many will see significant playing time. LB Donald Almeda is probably the closest to being ready to play at the next level but the team is likely going to deploy more nickel and dime packages.

This game seems like a trap. My initial thinking is that the spread should be 3 points or less, but it's 5. The public love to bet against ELP, but this is a much improved team on paper. I think I'll be siding with FAR here-- WR Johnstone hasn't had the best preseason and the other roster changes might take a few weeks to get up to speed. FAR wins 24-17.

Boise City at Alaska (-6) - We all feared the worst when QB Marischen went down in week 14, but he didn't retire and it looks like the 35 year old has recovered well enough to start week 1. I'm not sure how much more he can take, but it looks like he's hellbent on getting that 3rd ring. If Jimmy can stay healthy I love their chances, but the team really needs to work on that part. The team was 10-2 going into week 14 and had the division locked up. I get that the bye is important, but Marischen's late season injuries are probably the only reason he doesn't have 5 championships.

BCI comes off a really disappointing 2058 season and OC Kevin Gorham is out after 6 seasons with the team. I liked the way he ran the offense, but it did seem too predictable as of late. OC Wendell Campo has some great tools at his disposal, but he won't have a power run game like his old team FAR. The Stampede was one of the worst rushing offenses in the league last season and they haven't made any moves to fix it. To make things worse, star CB Doug Cheli was caught up in a drug bust at a party hosted by CB J.B. Brown. It looks like a temporary suspension, but we'll have to wait and see how the situation develops.

Normally I would take the points with the Stampede, but Cheli's absence is just too much. Even if Marischen isn't at 100%, one of WR Farley or Jennings is going to be wide open. ALA to win 30-20.

Other leans:
LAS (-13) at TUC
DUR (-10) at STL
ORE at SEA (-4)
SHR at SAN (-1)
HAR at BKN (-6)
TEX (-1) at SCU
IWC at CLE (-4)
DVY at ATL (-9)
TEN at NOS (-4)
BOS (-10) at ACI
HON at LVS (-14)
DEN at MIA (-6)
DET (-2) at KCY

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Last edited by zenzog on Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2059 Betting Preview - Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:23 pm 
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Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:19 pm
Posts: 261
Looks Good !!!

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 Post subject: Re: 2059 Betting Preview - Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 25, 2020 6:13 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2006 7:01 pm
Posts: 89
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
ugh.....

thx Z, appreciate the writeup... hope you got it wrong, lol....

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 Post subject: Re: 2059 Betting Preview - Week 1
PostPosted: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:27 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:43 pm
Posts: 301
good luck everyone! decided to make picks for the rest of the games... lot of big spreads I think underdogs will cover (except HON)

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 Post subject: Re: 2059 Betting Preview - Week 1
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:33 am 
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3/3 on picks
8/13 on leans

we hot

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