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 Post subject: 2059 Betting Preview - Week 15
PostPosted: Sun Nov 15, 2020 9:16 pm 
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Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:43 pm
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After two weeks off, we're back! Hopefully we'll do better after some R&R... we've been going through a rough patch lately. Now that we're in the home stretch, we'll be focusing on teams that actually have postseason hopes. SURELY these players will try that much harder!

Season record: 19/36

Detroit (-1) at Cleveland - For all the shade I throw at the San Andreas division, the Great Lakes guys might not be that much better. All four teams are actually alive with every reason to play.

CLE has gone 7 weeks without a win and they've seen just about everything fall apart. When QB Minton went down, GM king kosar went and got QB Kelley and things looked great... for one glorious come from behind win at DET gave them the top spot in the division. Then the wheels came off. Offense was never a strength for the Sentries but they really didn't miss a beat switching QBs. The defense, on the other hand, fell from a top 5 unit down to one in the bottom half. LB Wilson has been banged up for a decent chunk of the season, but the blame lies squarely on the front 4. They've been completely ineffective against the run and teams like DUR, ORE, and SHR have put up 200+ yards just on the ground!

They'll absolutely have to do better at home this week against a surging Vampires squad that has looked good in 3 of their last 4 games. Not much has really changed in terms of how DET plays but TE Voinovich went from just 143 yards in the first seven games of 2059 to 286 yards through the next six. His contribution takes some of the weight from WR Von Wyss, but opponents still get away with double teams.

It seems that word of Von Wyss' notoriety has spread as opposing DBs have gone down with mysterious injuries when covering the wideout. S Olin and CB Dawkins know that all too well-- both went down in week 7 at DET. NOS's CB Lauher, SHR's' CB Sinclair, and BAL's S Alchesky all have taken some shots when covering the Baron. Everything looks kosher but at this point we've gone from being a string of coincidences to something darker. Olin and Dawkins are healthy now but may play a bit softer if the rumors are true.

The forecast calls for rain which could bail the Sentries out if RBs start slipping but shutting down Von Wyss is their number one priority. If they can do that they'll have a shot. Still, I'll take DET this week-- I'm not sure why the Sentries look so lost against the run but the Vampires represent a tough matchup on that end. 24-20 DET.

Baltimore at Durham (-3) - The Atlantic division is another tightly contested race with three teams vying for the division and/or a wildcard spot.

When the Bombers visit DUR this week, they pack a top 5 defense with an on-again, off-again offense behind young QB O'Neill. The incredibly talented group is led by the often overlooked LB Nixon but goes from strength to strength at every level. Want to run the ball? They'll close every hole and swarm the ball carrier. Want to throw it instead? If you can survive the pass rush, the young safeties Alchesky, Crocker, and Leskun are the ballhawking kind that give QBs nightmares.

The real weakness is the team's inability to put points on the board. QB O'Neill is finding a real rapport with WR Stevenson who has emerged as a favorite target, though committing to the double team will likely backfire as the team emphasizes spreading the ball. Without a consistent running threat, however, teams can get by with leaving LBs and DBs in coverage.

The Bulldogs, along with TEN and FAR, are one of the hottest teams in the league right now with 7 wins in a row. As opponents have had more tape to study on QB Ortiz, it falls to the RB duo of Langenberg and Arnold to do the heavy lifting. Behind one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league right now, they've done exactly that-- winning the TOP battle and leading the CFL in takeaways allow the run game to smother opponents.

In their previous matchup, DUR was able to completely neutralize QB O'Neill and the offense. BAL were completely outcoached and the three turnovers were just icing on the cake. You would think that backing the Bulldogs is the play, but I'm not so sure-- and the main reason for that is the weather. We're looking at freezing temps and snow in Durham this week and that means poor footing for runners. If I had to choose a QB to take over a game this week, I'd give the edge to O'Neill and his experience. Give me BAL and the points in this week's upset: 17-14.

Seattle (-4) at Alaska - Amazingly, ALA still has a pretty good shot at making the playoffs. Yes, it sucks that QB Marischen is going to miss it but they just need to win their last 3 games for a wildcard spot.

My betting angle here is that SEA is completely locked in at this point. With two wins of the next 3 they can guarantee a first round bye (regardless of how LVS does) but I think the coaching staff will focus on getting their big guys healthy instead. C Archer and RG Beechler could suit up while LT Wirthel is definitely sitting this game. I think it would be a pretty big mistake for them to risk re-injury and ruin their hopes at a deep playoff run so I'm going to assume they'll all sit.

The Kodiaks didn't look great against DET last week and QB Dunn looked lost on the field. It's a real surprise that they didn't start QB Humphries since he's been with the team a little longer but maybe Brayden just had to shake off that rust. In any case, they won't be the stars of this week's show-- DE Thompson, DE McCormick, and NT Mabe have to take advantage of the hamstrung Spartan OL. They've been absolute studs this season and should feast.

Look for this game to be a low scoring defensive struggle as both teams are running on E and give me the Kodiaks to win or at least cover at home: 20-17.

GL Division Champions: 2057
EFC Conference Champions: 2057

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