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 Post subject: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 2
PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:44 am 
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Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:43 pm
Posts: 162
Some quick thoughts on yet more egregiously incorrect lines early on in the season...

Boston (-7) at El Paso - These two squads picked up quality wins in the season openers against ATL and DEN respectively, but this 7 point spread seems way too much. The team may be 1-0 under the new Blizzard moniker but can a new coat of paint erase the decade of suck (minus 2057) in the Northeast?

GM slimmikey's teams are always supremely talented but lacked the cohesion and chemistry of other winning franchises. That may have changed in 2061 as QB Klingbiel settles into his sixth season behind an offensive line that hasn't changed in the offseason. We saw the strength of a stable backfield and receiving corps last week against the Attack-- if this holds, the league is in for a shakeup.

The Rockets came out of the gates a bit slower against the Dynomite. QB Sullivan and El Paso struggled with turnovers but clutched up down the stretch as the much maligned RB Thurman Barker picked up 63 yards and 2 TDs in the second half to complete the comeback. There's only so much you can glean from one game but ELP's increased RB usage as a receiver adds another wrinkle to this aggressive offense.

All that to say, there's no way El Paso should be a +7 underdog at home. I do think Boston may have more talent pound for pound, but the Rockets at least know how to win. Give me the points and a small sprinkle on the moneyline, ELP wins this 28-24.

Omaha (-5) at Boise City - WR Dole and the Arrowheads looked a bit like themselves again against QB Ortiz and the Bulldogs but still came up short in the fourth quarter. An impressive 80 yard march down the field shut down any hope the Arrowheads had at breaking a 6 game losing streak against the runners up. Unfortunately, their schedule doesn't get any easier with a trip to another top tier opponent that had their run cut short by an injury to QB Doser.

If there's anything that OMA can be encouraged by, it's WR Marcus Dole's return to form. His recent injury woes have taken their toll on his athleticism and top end speed but he can make guys miss like no other. The bad stuff though... DUR's secondary is no joke but it seemed like they were able to disrupt OMA's passing attack all too easily. TE Duran saw 3 targets but it looked to me he was open on a few more plays than that. RB Johnstone gained just 22 yards on 7 attempts in the second half-- part of that was adjustments on the DUR side-- but I thought he could've done more. I'm not sure airing it out against CB Taylor, S Szczepaniak and the boys is the best plan of attack.

On the other side, BCI kicked off their season with a thorough beatdown of the Spartans. WRs Wagner and Brown looked unstoppable and CBs Kell and Cheli kept WRs Wojdylo and Hartsock bottled up on the other side. The team somehow keeps getting better and as long as QB Doser stays healthy I see them making a deep run this postseason.

The home team catching points here is just insane to me-- the Stampede are a real contender this year and should be treated as such. BCI improves to 2-0 this week, 33-26.

Detroit (-11) at Las Vegas - The bookies have turned on their own with this line... How exactly is this third year rookie QB favored on the road against the defending champs by even one point, never mind 11?

I don't think any analytics is necessary here. Take the points, take the moneyline, take out a mortgage to put it all on the Rounders.

GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059
EFC Conference Champions: 2057

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 Post subject: Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 2
PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:42 am 
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Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 12:04 pm
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 Post subject: Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 2
PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 1:22 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2006 7:01 pm
Posts: 79
Location: Atlantic City, NJ
now you talkin' Z........ i like the way you think


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 Post subject: Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 2
PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2021 2:14 pm 

Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2014 11:40 am
Posts: 671
Hooray for the return of the betting previews

Fargo Sodbusters

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