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PostPosted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:40 pm 
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Durham vs Fargo (-3) - Thought I might do something a little different this time and go through the position groups and see who's got the edge... the Sodbusters have looked incredible despite their injuries but should they really be favored?

Travis Ortiz vs. Devan Mitchem
Travis Ortiz is the total package. Luck met preparation when he was drafted first overall in 2058 and many think it's a matter of time until the rings come raining down. I see Ortiz as a very good, franchise quality starter but a lot of his success should be attributed to the talent that GM Steel put around him.

Through four seasons as the Bulldogs starter, Ortiz has averaged 254 completions (58.9%) for 2,954 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs, 6.8 AY/A, 90.7 rate. He's also averaged 666 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. This includes his good, but not great, rookie season and it is important to realize that just about every statistic has improved year over year. He's an electrifying mobile QB whose steely composure belies his youth.

In the other corner we find a more traditional pocket passer who showed glimpses with a defense oriented franchise. Mitchem's best stretch (of three seasons) came in his first three years as a starter for Detroit. He averaged 340 completions (58.3%) for 3,831 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs, 6.5 AY/A, 82.4 rate. He peaked in 2057, appearing in that year's CFL Bowl, but could not replicate that success. That is, until he was traded to Fargo... it's just one season but at the ripe age of 32, Mitchem could be seeing a career resurgence that could completely change the narrative.

There's no arguing that Ortiz is the more efficient, consistent, and talented of the two but Mitchem's kit can't be discounted in today's pass first football-- just one or two home runs might be all it takes to decide this contest.

Edge: Bulldogs

Roy Ellingsen vs. Ian Holzer
The Sodbusters will be making up ground with this comparison as it's a pretty clear-cut advantage for RB Holzer. Rookie RB Ellingsen hasn't quite filled the gap left by departing veteran RB Arnold and the numbers aren't pretty: 1,413 yards and 7 TDs on a very inefficient 3.87 yards per carry. The offensive line bears some of the blame, but it's clear the rookie has room for improvement.

RB Holzer's decisive one-cut running style has been the bread and butter for this franchise for years. He's not quite at RB Fulton's level but it's not hard to imagine him getting there. His size would be the only thing standing in his way but so far it has contributed more to his being tougher to bring down than any durability concerns.

Edge: Sodbusters

Bulldogs receivers vs. Sodbusters receivers
If you don't have Marcus Dole, your receiving corps isn't going to be better than Terry Fence and Dakota Crabtree. Yes, Durham spreads the ball out and works with all of their tools but well, we're comparing players directly.

Neither team really incorporates tight ends as ball-catchers but TE Reynolds could be an X-factor for Durham here. He's a Swiss-army-knife of a player that is just as comfortable running routes and catching as he is blocking.

Edge: Sodbusters

Bulldogs OL vs. Sodbusters OL
The Bulldogs offensive line has been together for a solid two years so it's surprising to see them struggle this season. Statistically they are middle of the pack, allowing just 23 sacks overall but Ortiz is having to scramble a bit more. Holes aren't opening up for RB Ellingson either which is a pretty big knock too.

The Sodbusters offensive line didn't have that same luxury of a consistent rotation. Injuries to C Fuller, G Henry, and T Horner saw young linemen step into the starting lineup. C Fuller was a late scratch last week and remains probable this week, but GM Ushikawa might let sophomore G Ready continue to stand in. G Brown is also waiting in the wings-- he sat last week, but it's unclear if it's a permanent adjustment. All things considered, Fargo has been excellent statistically. A league best BPct (40%) and top 5 OPRPct (18.9%) while running a merry-go-round of linemen is a testament to the coaching and mentality of the team.

he Bulldogs have a very talented and healthy group up front but the Sodbusters put together a consistent body of work that is one game away from greatness. It's not a wash but I can't really give one team an edge.

Edge: None

Bulldogs DL vs. Sodbusters DL
Youth can be a great asset for a team but I think the Bulldogs suffer from too much youth here-- two starters are rookies and one is a sophomore. The 4 in their 4-3 defense is mediocre at best and they don't get much help from their similarly aged linebackers.

When healthy, the Sodbusters have one of thee more oppressive units in the league. We're all praying for DE Almeda's swift and complete recovery, but in the meantime DE Alexander and DT Bradford are still a solid duo. It's really such a shame that Donald went down in week 15-- he was having a career year!

Edge: Sodbusters

Bulldogs LB vs. Sodbusters LB
I touched on this in the previous section, but the Bulldogs don't have the experience or talent in its linebackers. LB Shepherd is a sure tackler with a great motor that can be in the right place at the right time but he's a bit small and can get bullied on the field.

Fargo's great LB Sutter will be missing but offseason acquisition LB Bishop is an absolute beast in the middle. In coverage, we've seen great contributions from LB Andersen which shores a weakness that many other teams have. However, they aren't quite as stout against the run... and in particular have had problems against mobile quarterbacks. Still, they should give the Sodbusters the edge in this comparison.

Edge: Sodbusters

Bulldogs secondary vs. Sodbusters secondary
The Sodbusters secondary has played well this season, allowing 219.5 passing yards at a 57.5 percent completion rate compared to the Bulldogs 227.9 passing yards at a 59.4 percent completion rate. Some of that has to do with the competition-- Omaha and Kansas City tend to skew statistics-- but part of that has to do with the distribution of talent in the unit. CB Taylor has the potential to be a generational shutdown corner but opponents don't really have anyone else to fear. FS Szczepaniak and CB Garvin have both lost a step and struggle to contain opposing wideouts without help from their front seven.

Fargo's secondary plays much more aggressively, employing press coverage more than almost any other team while also loading up the box or double teaming with a safety. They're playing with fire but the pressure put on by their defensive line helps. S Watkins has been a versatile tool and leader that, in my estimation, actually makes the whole thing work. They're pretty good at taking the ball away when everything is clicking and they'll need some of that to kill QB Ortiz's drives.

Overall, it's close... in a vacuum. In this matchup though, CB Taylor is just one man against two in WRs Fence and Crabtree. Add in the pass rush's contribution and it's a little one-sided.

Edge: Sodbusters



Welp, looks like the Sodbusters really have an edge here... so I guess I'll take them to win and cover. Godspeed, gentlemen. Fargo wins this one 29-24.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 1:51 pm 
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Thanks for doing this (and all the others) Zen. Appreciate the extra approach for this game.

Ortiz and Taylor are some fearsome talents- will see if our overall talent can keep up.

If this game is 29-24 and Ortiz has the ball I am going to be experiencing shortness of breath for sure.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:23 pm 
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Great preview, zenzog. It's always an enjoyable read. Good luck, Ush.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:57 pm 
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Wow - nice preview Zen.!


Kinda felt a bias when reading about the QBs :-P

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