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PostPosted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:43 pm 
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We took a week off for Thanksgiving, but let's recap week 14 real quickly... ATL won straight up at BAL in, what must be said, absolutely horrifying fashion. The Bombers played a solid first half and then got lost in the tunnel coming out for the third quarter. SHR absolutely blitzed BOI and stay alive in the playoff race. DEN is probably donezo, QB Dole just isn't it right now.

Let's try to protect our 24-18 record as the remaining quality games feature short spreads.

Las Vegas (-2) at Hartford - Brooklyn's tie with Durham puts Hartford in a tough position-- a half game behind the division leader who gets two layups to end the season, must-win games against two solid teams in LVS and BOS-- but I suppose they just have to try their best. The Rounders just need to win one of the next two to lock in a spot and a season closer against Tucson really eases any pressure this week.

These are two very good squads with roughly equal chances to win this week but matchups will shape the script. Any team facing LVS has to have a solid offensive line and HAR's unit will be tested. They've done reasonably well this season but really gave up the ghost (6 sacks!) in week 3 against OHI's stellar front. LT Saddler came off the bench after that, but elite edge rushers can still find opportunities against C Burr and LT Martinez, both of whom are better run blockers.

Easing the pressure on QB Barker will be a priority and RB Feagles will be called upon to do just that. The big back should be able to keep things moving with runs to the outside being a significant part of this week's game plan. As athletic and talented this Rounders defensive line is, they are thinking sacks first. Passing options will be limited should LB Hargreaves suit up, but the HAR WRs should find success as long as QB Barker isn't running for his life.

In my mind, this game is about as even as any this week so I'll take the home dogs catching points. If this were in the playoffs, I would certainly give the Rounders an edge but LVS is practically guaranteed a spot and I suspect they won't be playing as hard as they could be: HAR wins 27-21.

El Paso at Detroit (-3) - The Vampires absolutely smashed OHI last week but looked inept at FAR the week before. An offense that had been anemic at times was catatonic against the Sodbusters, picking up just 70 yards and 3 points in the second half. Given the Sentries' decision to shut down many of their better players, it's hard to tell whether or not DET can keep up with a high flying ELP offense.

The Rockets are a dynamic team that can win any which way. There are enough talented receivers that double-teaming isn't an option. If you can stop QB Sullivan, as MIA did last week, RB Barker will make you pay. This is one of the most talented offensive units in the league today, which makes the matchup against one of the vaunted DET defense all the more exciting.

The Vampires defenders should fancy their chances, aided by WR Johnstone's expected absence and QB Sullivan's pulled groin. NT Schindlbeck demands double teams up front and could push additional pass protection duties onto TE McKenzie and RB Barker. DET has such a loaded front seven that pressure can come from any direction. Taking these weapons out of the rotation turns ELP into a much simpler puzzle to solve.

Injuries are an unfortunate part of this game and the simple fact is Detroit comes into this matchup much healthier. ELP's defensive front is banged up and WR Johnstone's production won't be easily replaced. The Vampires win and cover the short number, though it might be a sweat: 24-17.

San Antonio at Seattle (-3) - The final matchup of the day sees two teams that aren't quite dead yet but will need help to keep playing in January. The Spartans find themselves winners of 3 of their last 4 games and in the thick of the wildcard hunt. Depending on how this week goes, the two wildcard spots could well go to 9-7 teams. Meanwhile, the Stingers need two wins and a stumble from SHR to reach the playoffs. SEA is certainly the more established team but SAO is well ahead of the rebuild curve themselves.

This Stingers team lives and dies with QB Logan. When he throws for three TDs, 0 INTs, and makes plays with his legs as he did against KCY and SHR, SAO looks truly competitive. When he starts seeing ghosts, as against ALA and DET, well... they really don't have a chance. The Spartans will have their chances to make plays on the ball with as many times as QB Logan airs it out but I expect them to struggle with containment if he takes off running. LBs Beuter and Grider will just lose in a foot race and FS Blake isn't known for bringing down ball carriers.

The Spartans need a little bit more efficiency and consistency from QB Emmons to keep their season alive. They've seen what's possible these last few years when QB Emmons plays to his potential which makes these baffling duds against TEN and ORE all the more frustrating. They really shouldn't be losing! The team has always been pass-first and that hasn't changed with sophomore RB Jefferson handling most of the carries, but QB Emmons has incorporated some real veteran savvy when he takes off. He's fifth on QB rushing yards on the season and far more efficient than anyone in the top half of that list. SAO may be looking to blanket WRs Wojdylo and Hartsock but they'll need to be careful to not let Emmons find the space to run.

Seattle is probably better on paper, but I wonder about this line. The sharps are thinking there really isn't much of a difference between these teams as 70% of the tickets are on the Spartans but the line hasn't moved at all. I have my doubts... but taking the points in a game like this can't be that bad. SAO wins, or at least covers: 33-27.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 12:37 am 
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Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2006 7:01 pm
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Location: Atlantic City, NJ
Nice write up, Z… hope Rocketman can tough it out..

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El Paso Rockets (2057-2062)
NC East 2061
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