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1-2 last week which wipes out some profits... not really sure how ELP didn't capitalize on their red zone visits but kudos to ALA. They definitely know how to tighten up when they need to. 5-4 so we're still in the money.
Ohio at San Antonio (+0) - The Stingers came crashing back to earth after a stellar win in week 1. Between the pressure from DEs Johnstone and Dillon and CB Cheli shutting down half of the field, QB Logan simply could not get anything going. They looked better last week against BAL but defensive adjustments after the half held SAO to a mere 47 yards of offense.
The Sentries haven't had the best start and they arguably should be 2-1 but I don't think there's much to look forward to in Cleveland. Overtime against MIA could've gone either way and a monumental collapse in the fourth quarter against HAR probably wouldn't have happened if not for injuries to LT Cailleteau and DE Willis. Willis is expected to play while the star LT will not-- LT Kim O'Neill is next up. What little production they've been getting has been from their defensive front and the yardage lost from the departures of RB Mansour and both TE Lanes has yet to be replaced.
SAO has the young talent to go far, they just lack the experience and time to go far right this minute. However, they also have two ex-Sentries in QB Kaczor and TE Lane that could close the gap this week. That might be enough to take it over the line at home against an Ohio team that seems to be content treading water. As long as QB Logan can avoid hitting the deck, I like them to win here: The Stingers squeak this one out 24-20.
Baltimore at Durham (-2) - I'm not sure how they managed to do it but these Bulldogs picked up some absolute monsters in free agency this offseason. TE Weikel and WR Spradling come from a Bandits squad tanking for picks and on paper take this offense from scary to downright unfair. The defense has suffered turnover though-- LB Porter, S Szczepaniak, and LB Mello are no longer with the team-- and it is starting to show. Defensive metrics have dropped across the board and quality teams will push DUR to their limit.
While many consider the Bulldogs the easy division champs, the Bombers are quietly off to an excellent start. They were in contention for a 2061 wildcard spot into the last few weeks of the season and seemingly return stronger than ever. A new OC has QB O'Neill hitting career highs through 3 weeks and sophomore RB Humphries looks to be one of the best in the game today. Receiving talent is slim, but the consistency has been a huge contributor to the league's #1 completion rate (74%!). The stellar defense held OMA and SCU to dismal production and DE Hitchcock continues to break opposing gameplans. The Bombers look to be one of the most balanced teams in the league with a good chance at a postseason berth if things break their way.
A win this week would go a long way for BAL and I don't think it's a stretch. This game is one that screams reverse line movement-- 90% of the tickets are on the Bulldogs but the spread has actually ticked up from -3 to -2. It is extremely tempting to take DUR with such a short line but I think it's a trap. These two teams split their meetings last season and I expect more of the same as QB Ortiz continues to develop chemistry with his new weapons. BAL pulls this one out with strong contributions across all three phases: 31-28.
Santa Cruz (-8) at Oregon - After two years of real sucking and one year of middling degrees of suck (no thanks to injuries), the Privateers appear to have ended their rebuild early. QB Darusmont doesn't show any lasting effects from the concussion that ended his 2061 campaign and actually finds himself in good company through three games. Thanks to solid drafting under GM Cheesehead Craig, SCU has a good group of young players to carry the San Andreas division for years to come. Their run game has room for improvement but we've seen RB May be very effective so it could just be a slow start.
Their opponents are currently just beginning their years of suck and a rebuild of the ORE offense is of dire priority. TE Johnston and WR Tyler, both rookies, are flashing some potential even with QB Gaines at the helm. It remains to be seen if the sophomore QB is the long term solution as he looks to have regressed this year. LB Buckley is a saint for spending his prime in the doldrums but with any luck ORE will be back on its feet in a few years. Just hold on until then, I guess.
-8 is a big number but the Bandits haven't covered that against teams much worse than SCU. It's on the wrong side of 7 so if you want to buy a point, feel free. I think the Privateers will win by 10+ but anything could happen: the Bandits get handed another brutal loss, SCU wins 27-10.
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GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057
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