|
Another week in the money takes us to 16-17. DVY stays alive behind a surprisingly efficient day from QB Buckley. The two interceptions on their side of the field only turned into 6 points thanks to a suffocating defensive effort from, well, everyone on the roster. STL pulled out the upset as DUR continues to struggle without WR Hindman. Not too worried about their chances in the postseason but now we're looking at a world without the Bulldogs in the playoffs.
Then there's Shreveport... still haven't watched the tape on this one but the box score is pretty damning. SAO converted 9/12 3rd downs, committed just a single penalty, and played a very clean game overall. Two fumbles (one on a punt return, the other in SHR territory) kept this game from being an even bigger blowout. Even if this team sputters out in the next 6 games, SAO is a team to watch next year.
Moving swiftly on...
Texas at St. Louis (-14) - 2-2 fading TEX... the Privateers apparently wanted to give TEX a handicap and let the Inferno go up 20-0 before suiting up. In the end we were a missed FG away from covering the -12 but they were obviously the right side the whole time. These double digit spreads are a little sketchy but STL should win easily. This is another let-down spot after the huge emotional win against DUR but this TEX squad is up there with the 2059 TUC team as one of the worst in history. STL wins and covers: 36-14.
Baltimore (-3) at Death Valley - It feels like I feature BAL a bunch in my betting columns so I'll make this quick. The analytics love the Bombers but they just aren't winning. I don't know what it is about this team but you can see that there is potential that simply isn't being realized.
BAL shut down OMA pretty handily this last week as a 2 point home dog-- WRs Dole and Stone combined for 3 catches on 7 targets for 36 yards while RBs Ashworth and Johnstone averaged 2.38 ypc if you exclude the 54yd scamper in the 4th quarter. It was a fantastic performance overall by any metric except the offense was absolutely putrid. A little bit of Tucson came out today as O'Neill posted a 29.4 QBR. They'll need to be significantly better this week to keep their hopes alive. My model has them at 0.4% to make the postseason and it starts with this win.
The Copperheads, meanwhile, played possibly their best game of the season. Despite QB Buckley's two INTs, DVY looked like a vastly better team and was in full control wire to wire. A WC spot is well within reach if they can keep turnovers to a minimum and tighten up their penalties. A small shoutout here to WR Porter-- this dude is on another level when it comes to taking the tops off of defenses but QB Buckley just couldn't get the ball out to him before. Very scary now if it keeps up.
At the risk of betraying the analytics gods... I'm going to side with BAL here. DVY is a popular public dog catching 3 points at home, which is never good, and BAL still has something to play for. The matchup seems good-- the Bombers secondary can smother just about any receiving corps in the league-- and they've shown the ability to slow competent rushing offenses in OMA, DUR, SCU, and STL. Hey on the plus side if BAL doesn't win, they're out of the playoff hunt and we won't have to bet on them again. BAL wins and covers: 27-21.
Tucson at Hartford (-7) - TUC at 3-7 is somehow not mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt... and the players seem to be giving it a decent go. They led the Outlaws 31-21 into the 4th quarter but gave up the ghost in a ridiculous sequence from QB Bailey after the two minute warning. That being said, I think Toros management understands that this is not their year and they need to protect their draft pick. New GM Teutoberg did need to see how his starters played but I think he's seen enough.
HAR could use a pick-me-up after losing two in a row to OMA and BRK. Last week's loss is particularly heartbreaking as they led 16-6 but gave up a handful of crucial plays to let the Brawlers back into the game. 3 defensive penalties in the final drive of regulation is completely unacceptable. Still, they're a potent team just one game behind the rest of the WC teams and shouldn't have any trouble navigating the win against the Toros.
Matchups will be fluid in this game as I expect Tucson to be experimenting with lineups and schemes but Hartford simply outclasses their opponent this week. I'll lay the 7 points with the home team: HAR wins 30-13.
Miami at Detroit (-5) - The 8 game streak comes to an end for the Vampires this week but they were bound to run out of steam after 3 games on the road. DET will play 5 of their remaining 6 games at La-Z-Boy stadium and are expected by many to lock up a playoff spot. However, MIA is desperate for wins in a division that is still up for grabs which spells danger for both teams.
It's tough to say what exactly went wrong for MIA last week against DEN. Despite the sprained knee, QB Dole started the game well, going 5/5 for 47 yards and a TD. He was pulled seemingly out of an abundance of caution and the veteran QB Woodard finished out the game. MIA should've handled their business up 24-7 in the middle of the 3rd quarter but a fumble on their side of the field completely flipped the script and we would see one of the biggest meltdowns of the season. The Dynomite tightened up and allowed just one sack on QB Woodard after that. Three drivers later and we find ourselves in OT with momentum firmly on DEN's side. A third fumble by TE Ziel in OT would "seal" the deal.
Detroit played a much closer game with Kansas City and nearly completed the comeback. OC Cockburn came out with a very different gameplan to start this match as QB DiCosomo threw the ball aggressively early and often. After one quarter of success, DET's passing attack would see little more until the final minutes of the game where an offensive holding penalty at the KCY05 would kill their drive. DC Engleberger also threw some new aggressive looks at KCY and held QB Grueneich to a poor 46.1% completion rate but the Storm managed to find the yardage and points to come out on top.
The Vampires have been a revelation on defense this season, posting extremely good metrics against decent competition, but the offense continues to struggle. RB Burton looks to be the best player but struggles with fitness and conditioning. Everyone else looks mediocre out there though WR Von Wyss is an absolute menace with the ball in his hands. They will need to step up against a fairly skilled opponent.
Miami's star DE Nichols continues to miss games due to the concussion protocol but it doesn't seem to be affecting their excellent pass rush. Consistency issues and ball protection plague the roster though-- one week they'll beat FAR and LVS, the next they'll lose to HON and TUC. They play up (and down) to their opponents and it's no recipe for success. That being said, their losses are close and wins are even closer so I have to take the points with the Talons: DET wins but does not cover 17-14.
_________________ 
GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057
|
Login
FAQ
