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PostPosted: Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:51 am 
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Somehow we pulled out a 3-0 week and go to 19-17 and back into profit-town. BAL leaned heavily on RB Humphries-- who looks like a very solid workhorse-- while DVY abandoned their strength and were punished with 3 missed FGs. The Bombers have a terrifying secondary if they want to get the clamps. HAR took care of business. MIA came out of the gates guns blazing and got to a double digit lead before the anemic DET even got a whiff of the promised land. QB DiCosomo has looked quite poor in the last two weeks and we finally saw him hit the bench. The Talons may have exposed the Vampires as the fraudulent 8 win team they are.

Onward to the meat and potatoes of the season...

Tucson (-4) at Texas - 2-3 fading TEX... Alright maybe we stop fading this Inferno team with these horrible double digit spreads. Teams aren't really trying very hard against them and it's leading to weird shenanigans and backdoor covers. This is a tough line-- almost nobody is betting TUC here because well... they're both bad. The line is holding pretty steady at -4 though so the sharps must be seeing something here. Gotta stick to fading TEX as they race to that delicious 0-16: TUC wins on the road 24-10.

Denver (-3) at Oregon - Denver losing to IWC was somewhat unexpected but QB Dole's mistakes have cost them plenty this season. There are some good pieces on this Dynomite squad but the only way they come back competent next season is if they get right with their defense. All-star level guys like S Asavamonchai, DT Wortham, and DE Branch are posting great numbers but the defense as a whole is pretty bad. It looks like a lot of selfish football.

The Bandits were gifted a win as QB Fryday was suspended by the New Orleans for "conduct detrimental to the team." I'll speculate on that a little bit later. Rookie QB Reid looked supremely nervous and clearly isn't ready to carry a CFL team by himself and RB Tatum should've gotten more touches. Rookie QB Harvey has picked up 2 wins but realistically, ORE is a team devoid of talent and waiting for the off-season where they have two first round picks. They won't be seeing a top 3 pick at this rate but #4 is still an excellent place to be if they want it.

DEN is just 3 games back from a wildcard spot and could well make it if they win the next few games. I can't say exactly what this front office is planning to do but if they want to stay alive they have to win here. If not, well... then we know that DEN is tanking and that'll inform our bets down the road. The Dynomite win this and cover as Oregon plays catchup with HON and OHI: DEN 22-13.

New Orleans at St. Louis (-10) - One of the biggest stories of week 12 was the suspension of CFL champion QB Fryday by the Voodoos for "conduct detrimental to the team." It was clear that Fryday wasn't happy with the team's 3 game skid and he said as much in the postgame interviews after week 10. "The receivers were running routes not exactly where I thought they were going to be at,” he told reporters. "The offensive line, they were good sometimes, and sometimes they let guys through."

Sources close to the team said that the quarterback then took a private jet to Las Vegas and did not return for team practice on Wednesday during the BYE week. He is back in New Orleans now but the team has not said whether or not his suspension would continue. Drama aside, the Voodoos have significant talent on their roster. WR McCreadie hasn't slotted in quite as well as they would like but DE Richey and SS Gibb are making plays. With SAO and SHR picking up losses, the Voodoos are in a good position to take the division if the coaches can get everything back on track.

STL played a lazy game last week against TEX but the body of work is there. A tough defense, bruising runners that wear opponents down, and a QB that has just three interceptions (tied for best in the league). They probably won't win the division but it's still a great place to be.

This -10 line seems a bit high for me and there aren't many books with betting enabled this early in the week. Most are waiting to see if QB Fryday will sit this week as the gap between him and QB Reid is massive. I think he'll play so I'm going to take the +10 with NOS-- my models have this game at -14 if he doesn't, -6 if he does. The Voodoos may not win but they should cover: STL 26-21.

Iowa City at Boston (-7) - After a tough front 8, Boston is enjoying one of the weaker back 8 schedules in the league. ACI, HON, TUC, LAS, IWC should all be wins for the Blizzard and weeks 11 and 12 are already in the books. QB Klingbiel and RB Hancock have been padding their stats and look, on paper, like the best duo in the league. This week's match against IWC should be another "name your own score" adventure given the gap in talent.

With 5 games left against opponents they simply aren't favored to beat, IWC is headed for another poor finish. Recent drafts have yielded several exciting talents but they need time to develop. CB Kelly, RG Grier, and LB Francois look to be premier talents with the latter showing flashes of true greatness. DT Hanks and WR Pittard, last year's picks, are solid contributors with more growth expected. 2063 is looking like when everything will truly be online for the Argonauts but they have to make it without any serious injuries.

It's hard to argue with the level Boston is at this season. They are going toe to toe with the top teams in the CFL and completely blowing past the lesser squads. There is some danger here for BOS-- despite mixed results, IWC has one of the most talented defensive fronts. S Richardson and this secondary are also one of the better tackling units in the league, limiting YAC opportunities. The aforementioned WR Pittard also has seen target share rise and the Blizzard will need to keep him in check (this shouldn't be too hard since he has a limited route tree). It might be bumpy but I see a game that BOS breaks wide open in the 4th quarter: BOS 30-14.

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GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057


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