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PostPosted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:55 am 
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We are getting down to the business end of the season and the playoff picture is still looking hazy. There aren't a ton of divisional games but several have significant impact on the postseason. Let's take a look at some matchups that actually matter:

Fargo at San Antonio (-1) - The Sodbusters' slow start put them in too deep a hole to recover against the Generals last week. Both of the team's turnovers were in the first quarter and in their part of the field. The remaining three quarters looked pretty good but there was a stretch of four drive killing 3rd down attempts that shone a light on the team's offensive line woes. Now with C Fuller joining LT Johnston on the injury report, the Sodbusters will need to dig deep and win on the road against the explosive Stingers.

San Antonio's insane comeback against Shreveport was punctuated by stellar play from CB Newsom who completely shut out WR Thornton and managed to undercut a pass to the talented TE Olsen leading to the go ahead field goal. The defense stood up but QB Logan and the offense was really lackluster. SHR's pass rushers were able to pressure the mobile QB and the secondary was well prepared to make plays with the ball in the air. WR Brennan was targeted 13 times but held to just 6 catches-- 4 of them were batted away by DBs with double coverage helping otherwise.

This matchup seems rough for San Antonio. Fargo has been excellent defensively, posting top 5 marks across the most important metrics in stopping the Stingers. They're under some duress with those injured offensive linemen but SAO doesn't have the kind of pass rush to really punish. My models actually put this game favoring Fargo so I'll have to take them here. The Sodbusters circle the wagons after two tough losses to keep their postseason hopes alive: 27-23.

Las Vegas at Omaha (-3) - Losing your star QB in week 5 would pump the brakes on any team's postseason aspirations but GM jjsmitty's quick bid for rookie QB Torres may have fans back on board. Losses to STL, SAO, and DUR are bad but these were losable games even with QB Womble. Torres and the Arrowheads improved quickly and won some easy ones against TEN and BAL. OMA's offensive line deserves a lot of credit as QB Torres was relatively untouched following the pressure from DUR in week 8, but a big test is coming to town.

The Rounders have revenge on their minds but their play this season has been uninspiring. Cap casualties left big shoes to fill on the roster and despite QB McKnight's heroics, LVS sits at 5-5 needing to make a run for just a wildcard spot. The team continues to experiment with a rotation of DE Cochrane and DE Sampson in the wake of DE Anagnostis' departure but opponents cheating to DE Brock's side haven't been punished. This lack of pressure has revealed shortcomings in the secondary; HON and TUC posted season high QBRs against LVS going into the BYE week. I expect Las Vegas to put up a fight but there are still a lot of questions to be answered.

I know Omaha fans think QB Torres is the second coming, but I'm not so sure. This week will be a good test as the veteran DBs on LVS have had two weeks to prepare. I've noticed that the rookie has tended to home in on WR Stone even when WR Dole or TE Hoffman are better options. He needs to calm down , go through his progressions, and spread the ball around. The Rounders will be all too happy to cheat coverage and take the turnovers.

I hate betting against LVS as underdogs... so I won't. Las Vegas rights the ship and wins against a solid opponent this week: 30-17. I would take the under on most QB Torres props as well as over 0.5 INTs.

Alaska at Hartford (-6) - The Kodiaks are on quite the slide after a 5-2 start. Losses to SEA, LAS, and BOI have been plagued by turnovers (2, 5, and 3 respectively) and fumbles are particularly troubling. I can understand RB Harden and QB Linquist staying on the field-- what else can you do?-- but this punt returner CB Jamison absolutely needs to get benched. This guy is killing ALA and GM marven's inaction is borderline inexcusable. Production on both sides of the ball are quite good but these turnovers... man.

Hartford, I think, has been blessed with an easy schedule. Yes, they are 7-3 but they're losing to teams with winning records. DET, KCY, and ACI are proving to be reasonable competitors and the Attack lost to all three. They were much less effective on both sides of the ball in their losses and I think it continues against a tough ALA team. Injuries aren't going to help: CB Russell, CB Newsome, and LB Farley are expected to sit this week. The first of those absences is going to be significant. Who else can cover WR Greer?

Now, they do have a lot of talent on this roster. QB Barker is still solid under center. RB Feagles is a bruiser posting a league leading 5.52 ypc. WR Carpenter, WR Joseph, and TE Wick are matchup nightmares for any team. Their offensive line anchored by their two big guards is one of the best in the league. DE Whorton shuts down any plays to the left side while the veteran DL focus on the rest. I just have my doubts when it comes to competing at the next level.

I see value in taking the points with Alaska. Injuries are a part of that but the Kodiaks have been generally quite solid against every opponent. Fumbling and turnovers are somewhat random and I hope they just put a little more stick-um on their gloves this week. The Kodiaks should win, or at least cover this week: 21-14.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:27 am 
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Omaha Arrowheads
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Love the write up and Torres has a chance to save our season, he's not as good as Womble but he can throw it ok.

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JJ Smitty's Record
Atlantic Division Champions - 2007, 2008, 2010, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2028, 2035, 2037, 2039, 2044, 2046, 2047
Eastern Conference Champions - 2008, 2039, 2047
CFL Champions - 2008, 2039, 2047


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:09 pm 
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Appreciate the vote of confidence and love these writeups

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17 Division Titles
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:58 pm 
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Las Vegas Rounders
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Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 9:54 pm
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Location: Poplar Grove, IL
Smart money is avoiding us for good reason. We're playing for the rookies we have and the ones we get next year, not much more than that, unfortunately.

That being said, we'll be getting rid of the stale GP that had to sit in place while I was away and we do love playing spoilers, so there's always room for drama.

It's just sad what a few months can do to 2 teams that battled for last year's title.

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CFL Champions: 2018, 2041, 2057-2058, 2060, 2062

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