Durham at San Antonio (+4) - The Bulldogs are on the longest win streak in the league (9!) but still take their first playoff game under new ownership on the road. The play of 2061's OROY and 2062's OPOY RB Ellingsen has been the difference maker as he accumulated 1208 offensive yards (956 rushing) and 11 TDs. WR Hindman has re-emerged as QB Ortiz's favored deep threat and the tandem has looked unstoppable down the stretch. Defensively they've been exceptional, allowing just 13.1 points per game in their last 9 games, even against teams like OMA, LVS, and STL. The consistently disruptive pressure from DE Flowers and rookie NT Metzenbaum is complemented by the inspired play of S Tubbs, CB Taylor, and S Marsh on the back end and frankly they look like the best unit in football right now.

The Stingers got back to winning ways after dropping 5 of 6 games during the week 8-14 stretch. Three wins in a row against SHR, PHI, and TEN feel great but qualitatively are not the best competition. The 26 year old QB Logan has not meaningfully improved since last season's one and done result and wild inconsistencies plague the team. Talented receivers are uniformed decoys more often than not while WR Brennan gets force fed targets. The team's defense has regressed significantly from 2063's campaign, dropping from 317.7 total yards allowed (4th) to 372.8 (30th) and 17.4 points allowed (5th) to 20.9 (13th). DC Quinn Sullivan has rightly taken some of the blame for the unit's struggles despite most of the defensive pieces returning, but they need to figure something out fast-- Durham isn't the same team that the Stingers trounced in week 4.

This matchup is relatively simple, strategically, for Durham: stop QB Logan. The dual threat QBs have been a challenge for the Bulldogs in the past but they've bottled QB Fryday, QB Joyner, and QB O'Neill in recent weeks. For San Antonio, the front seven have to step up: Either stop RB Ellingsen or pressure QB Ortiz. They were able to do the latter once so fingers crossed they'll be able to do it again.

I think Durham is the best team in football right now and in prime position to make a deep run if not win it all. CB Taylor held WR Brennan to just 41 yards in week 4 so QB Logan will need to find his other receivers. I'm not optimistic. Give me Durham to win and cover on the road: 33-17

When DUR has the ball...they like to run it and do so well and have 4 targets above 7 YPA and are tops short passing making them a tough nut to crack for any DC. Complicating things further they are tops in RZ, very good on 3rd and tops in both INTs and Fumbles allowed.

They do have a dud at LT but while DE Winslett is a heckuva football player he is not a gamewrecking pass rusher and the poor LT talent hasn't had a meaningful affect on DUR's productivity. SAO does have a nice safety tandem but I don't think that will really force DUR to do anything differently, it seems they almost prefer to win with 20+ first downs and 24 points.

SAO plays a very vanilla D GP last time with just 3 play calls and no buzzing, doubles, spying or blitzing. If they are going to have a chance to disrupt they are going to pick their spots to try something. Because resting on their top RZ defense may lead to a disappointing result.

When SAO has the ball...they would be wise to run at those DEs and OLBs a lot which has not been their MO. DUR is a bit of studs and duds on D and those are the spots worth attacking on the ground.

SAO is no slouch with short passing but DUR has been lights out there, they don't go deep often but this may be a game to try it. DUR is good rushing the passer but that may be distorted data by them being so dang good all around.

SAO's secondary receivers are highly dependent on YAC to maintain the 7 YPA mark but DUR looks to be very solid tacklers against the short stuff by the stats if not by the bars.

DUR is a right behind SAO in RZ defense so whichever O can crack that puzzle will likely do well.

I'll take the points thinking that SAO should be able to put up a GP once more to not just stifle DUR but take advantage of the defensive liabilities.

Death Valley at Fargo (-3) - The Death Valley Copperheads are catching fire at the right time. After a 1-3 start, the team flipped the script and boasts the single best point differential over the next 12 games: 30.58 - 14. Many outsiders, myself included, thought that RB Donaldson's release was a big mistake. After all, he was the most dominant running back since RB Fulton, and could single handedly carry a team to the postseason. QB Buckley peaked in 2055 and struggled with accuracy and turnovers. The Copperheads were a consistently mediocre defensive unit too, sitting at the middle of the table along most metrics. Now I must eat crow, however, as GM Jander3456's faith in QB Buckley and Rookie RB Lyons has been rewarded. RB Lyons was considered a mid first round pick by most but saw his draft stock fall as teams passed on the bell cow from Brown. Now he looks like the front runner for OROY. QB Buckley looks like the stud he was supposed to be, despite the increased attention from defenses after RB Donaldson's departure. DE Yaros didn't let last year's snubbing affect his game and one of the most disruptive pass rushers in the league continues to ply his craft. DVY's pass rush took the next step after the acquisition of LB Leinaweaver from New Orleans and whatever weaknesses exist in the secondary simply don't matter anymore.

On the opposite side of things, the Sodbusters have now gone 11-5 four seasons in a row. The franchise's last losing record happened in 2054 and despite generational talent leaving, turnover in the coaching staff, and changes at QB, the Sodbusters find a way to win. While RB Holzer continues to do the heavy lifting on offense and sophomore QB Sherman shows serviceable ability with room to grow, the defense has been this season's star contributor. The front seven reads like a who's who of future hall of famers-- any offensive line is going to be scrambling for answers against LB Almeida, DE Bradford and DE Stai. It's a bit early but rookie NT Stone looks like one of the best run stopping big men already. This is one terrifying defense and one that would take any team deep into the postseason.

Only one team will play more games, however, and I have reason to think it could be Death Valley. Yes, Fargo took care of business in week 4 but the Copperheads are hotter and healthier right now. DVY got to take it easy in week 17 while FAR were fighting for a bye. That is going to add up. GM Ushikawa may have confidence in QB Sherman but gun to my head I'm trusting QB Buckley to not lose the game for me. I also give a slight nod to this DVY offensive line-- these guys are veterans. They've gone through their paces. Fargo's got a rookie RG and young (albeit talented) tackles on the perimeter. I'm riding the red hot Copperheads to upset on the road: 27-24.

When DVY has the ball...they love to run to the left and up the gut and are good at the latter. That may be successful this week as running outside vs Fargo has been a nightmare for opposing Os as they've moved away from their press-1 base but they are merely average up the gut.

Passing they don't go short often but are very efficient when doing so a solid tackling performance from FAR will be needed. DVY has had excellent pass pro and was not hurried or sacked in the week 4 matchup.

FARs top RZ defense played a big role in their earlier victory but that can be hard to count on along with the blocked punt recovered for a TD. The normally careful Buckley did throw 2 picks though against a dangerous back 7. If FAR's D puts up another game like the last one then things will be tough for DVY but counting on a repeat performance seems foolish especially considering...

When Fargo has the ball...it's like a blast from the past Woodard era where they would have 20 INTs per season despite a bottom 5 pass rate. But now they can't run it well or get 5+ YAC reliably.

This week they may get some consistent gains on the ground but that may not be enough to put points on teh board.

FAR has struggled to generate consistent YAC this season and their earlier matchup with DVY was no exception. What was the exception was that QB Sherman played a clean game. FAR also was near the bottom in pass pro while DVY led the league in rush% so count on many a hurry if not sacks from DVY especially if FAR cant stay ahead of the sticks.

FAR may not keep DVY out of the end zone for 60 minutes but they should contain DVY for the most part. The question is where DVY will be getting the ball, if Sherman throws 2 untimely picks and they struggle to generate explosive plays then that may lead to a loss.

We think (hope) there will be some heroics however from FAR's athletes out wide given the lack of tacklers in DVY's secondary to compensate for at least 1 brutal INT to win comfortably.

Santa Cruz at Los Angeles (-3)
LA pulled away in the 2nd half in week 13 in an earlier matchup where both teams settled for FGs quite a bit but maybe should have been up to begin with as they were kicking from the RZ not beyond.

When Santa Cruz has the ball...keep an eye on those intermediate passes where they are top 5 in frequency and LAS has been a bit weaker there than elsewhere likely due to a lack of pass rush. Which appears to be SCZ's weakness as they have allowed more than 25 PR%.

LAS also has no DB that can reliably cover Sanderson and doubling can lead to frequent YAC chunks as the secondary option Yates put up nearly 7 YAC/catch and is also plenty capable of beating single coverage. LAS doubled and blitzed about a quarter of the time last meeting but did not Spy hardly and finding the right balance there will be key.

SCZ was strong in the RZ but terrible on 3rd despite being gifted 30 firsts via penalty so hard to make sense of how they do situationally. Look for SCZ to cough it up as well as they had quite a few fumbles and LAS was top 5 in forcing them with RB Morton being the primary culprit but the scrambling Darusmont contributing as well.

When LAS has the ball...keep an eye out for WR Campbell to repeat his 11 catch, 130 YAC performance form week 13. Or not as that was a total anomaly as he was under 4 YAC/catch the rest of the season. SCZ sent a blitz on more than 40% of snaps last meeting and played plenty of single high and even Man coverage along with their base press 2.

LAS has been quite effective on deeper routes this season but SCZ is very solid there likely as a proxy effect of DE Agnostics who got through plenty and beat Bailey up in week 13 but didn't record any sacks against an overmatched right side. LAS is much better at protecting the football but suffers as well on 3rd down and in the RZ a bit.

I think it will be very tough for LAS to find the right balance to stop Sanderson without exposing themselves elsewhere and while LAS O will move it some the pressure from Agnostics will stop a handful of drives in their tracks and Campbell won't be putting up 10 YAC / catch again. Gimme the points in a game likely to be decided by RZ performance once more.

Santa Cruz at Los Angeles (-3) - Ushi brings up some good points and ultimately I agree with his pick but I see it from a different angle. Assuming the protection holds up for QB Bailey, the Outlaws will have their chances. SCU will be sending rushers and opportunities should be there for RB Donaldson. He's still that guy and I think LAS took it easy on him to make sure he was fresh for the playoffs. Feed him the rock, give QB Bailey some easy, quick throws, give CB Barber some help with WR Sanderson... and yeah, you've got a stew.

Santa Cruz is a team with an inconsistent, one dimensional offense. They try to run the ball and get their second year TE Cancilla involved but when push comes to shove, QB Darusmont is looking for WR Sanderson. That makes things easier for LAS who can and should look to double the star receiver when possible but don't forget that WR Yates is a sneakily effective target on third downs. I think the key, and ultimately the reason why Santa Cruz will win, is that pressure from DE Anagnostis. He knows QB Bailey. He knows LT Ellison. The replacements on LAS did a decent job protecting in week 13 but this is the playoffs and the lights are simply too bright for guys who probably won't be on the team come 2065.

I'll take the Privateers on the road: 27-19

Detroit at Brooklyn (-3)
Two similar teams who both love to run it for 4 yards up the gut and are dangerous when going to the edge but don't do so often while being bottom 2 teams in short passing. Very low TOs and top 3rd down efficiency. All of this enabled by stifling Ds against the run and good tackling in the back 7.

When Detroit has the ball...Detroit has ridden their 2 rookie Ts to put together a ball control offense that isn't really terrifying in any way but their approach and DiSco's care of the football has led to very good situational football and a lack of TOs. Bad news for them is that BKN has the top run D in the league, tacklers throughout the back 7 and puts together a nice 3rd down personnel group.

If there is a weak spot it would be over the middle where DET may find success with Coleman but then again with S Norris hanging over the top I am not convinced that will move the needle.

DET has done well in the RZ and BKN on D is poor there so perhaps if they can fenagle their way to a few possessions there then it will be enough.

When BKN has the ball...they also run it straight up the gut mostly. But unlike DET they have been susceptible to pressure with some very weak Ts which could mean DET edgeman Stephens finally plays up to his potential.

While BKN's front 7 talent is concentrated on the DL for DET it's at the LB level and this is reflected in their passing D both short and intermediate.

Winner will be whichever GM doe a better job at realizing they are playing a carbon copy of themselves. BKN has a big cohesion and experience advantage but I like DET's chances as the more experimental OC along with exploiting BKN's Ts and better RZ performance.

Detroit at Brooklyn (-3) - The Vampires were lucky and got some help from Omaha to secure the second wildcard spot. The team's 2064 campaign was a great recovery following the dismal 4-12 season that resulted in coaching turnover. QB DiCosomo built on his chemistry with TE Coleman and found more confidence behind his (new) huge offensive line. Defense is still the team's priority but recent investments on the other side have balanced out the weaknesses of seasons past.

Most franchises would be pleased with a 10-6 season and wildcard berth but Brooklyn fans are hungry for more. After back to back bowl appearances in 2058 and 2059, the Brawlers have struggled to return. Three out of the last four playoff appearances resulted in a first round exit, one at the hands of these Detroit Vampires. It was two seasons ago but both teams are largely intact and the bad blood was on full display during week 5's battle. Scrappy exchanges between BRK linemen and LB Stephens almost resulted in ejections.

Injuries to key players on both sides keeps things somewhat level but the loss of LT Johnson is likely to tip the scales. Like Ushikawa said, this is in many ways a mirror matchup. Both teams play tough defense and are content with running the ball up the middle for a handful of yards. QB Woodford is settling into a game manager role with the double L backfield doing most of the work on the ground while QB DiCosomo is not afraid to throw deep to WRs Malley and Von Wyss. The game will hinge on each team's offense breaking through stifling opposition.

I think Detroit's defense should have the upper hand this week with DE Nager and LB Stephens stuffing the run and crashing the pocket. WR McCloskey is getting better integrated each week and presents a tough challenge for a secondary that has its hands full starting two rookies and missing a key contributor in S Decota. The Vampires win and move on in a close, low scoring affair: 16-14.