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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:12 pm 
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Fargo (-5) at Boise City - Fargo's wildcard game looked like a done deal until the final 3 minutes where some real magic from DVY and a lapse in focus from FAR culminated in a real clench moment with 0's on the clock. WR Hicks needed to fall on the onside kick but just... didn't. CB Ross needed to jump and bat the ball down but just... didn't. It looked like they started celebrating in their heads before the game actually ended.

Still, there were a lot of great things to say about the Sodbusters-- their offense was clicking well despite sputtering out in the red zone 3 times. QB Sherman threw an early interception but didn't let it affect his play later. WR Fence looked unstoppable and turned in his best performance of the year. NT Stone and the defensive line brick walled RB Lyons and a very good DVY rushing attack. They'll need all of these and more when they match up against longtime Sodbuster QB Woodard and the Stampede.

Did anyone expect Boise City to make playoffs, let alone capture a first round bye? No? Well in that case, I'll recap their season quickly. QB Fitzgerald started early in the season but found himself on the bench after a middling 3-2 start. The Stampede cleared out their backfield and brought in RB Hancock from BOS. Bargain bin replacements up and down the roster have outperformed expectations. The team's offensive line has three starters picked up off the street in C Lefebvre, LG Brock, and RG Gerhardt. LB Jochen, DT Hudson, TE Weikel, and S Bethea join a cast of veterans past their prime and they've all decided to make one last legitimate run.

Fargo should be winning this but I can't help but think there might be some magic left in these old Boise City dogs. FAR CB Parrish, LB Sutter, and S Watkins are banged up with only the former expected to play this week. BOI has some relatively fresher legs and these former all-star wideouts could have a field day. I like their chances to win, or at least cover: 28-21
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Fargo hasn't lost to Boise City since 2048 winning their last 6. But BOI now has former Sodbuster QB Woodard so the chance to reverse fortunes may be strong.

When FAR has the ball...we know what they will do, run it despite a lack of sustained success and try to spread targets to their 3 WRs and avoid 2 or more INTs. Totally reliant on 3rd down and RZ performance or aging WR athletic feats to put up significant points.

BOI has some solid run defenders in the front 7 and (with the return of Isaac Lincoln) the boundary corners to actually challenge those WRs and were top 5 against the intermediate passes that FAR favors and good against the short stuff as well. They don't have much of a rush though despite significant blitzing and most of FAR's duds in the passing game came when they were pressured a good bit. BOI did not seemingly get a lot of INTs but with Lincoln missing half the season that may be misleading.

I'd look for the run game to be dominant at times but go through dry spells enough that FAR is forced to win some of those matchups outside from time to time.

I'd like to see FAR find a way to work those LBs in coverage a bit but that may be asking a lot from the lack of talent they have at TE and RB for receiving.


When BOI has the ball...they did okay running it but FAR is a different animal vs the run than most teams and BOI is a bottom 8 run attempt team anyways.

They primarily operate out of the 113 and look to leverage high low concepts with plenty of downfield passing targets getting the first look though they haven't been particularly effective there.

They do throw it short a lot and are also efficient at it FAR was good at getting incompletes there but do give up YAC moreso than you might think.

At times FAR can have a rush but other games it is non existent, those soft Gs on BOI OL may struggle at times against the 34 Eagle and lips are sealed on if FAR plans on sending extra bodies or not. BOI was very good on 3rd down on O but then again so was FARs defense. FAR knows full well that Woodard will throw his share of picks and FAR has the ballhawks to take advantage.

All in all, I think FAR will do their thing on O and organically get to 20 points and maybe more with some RZ luck. On D they may give up some short YAC stuff but even if they get burned some downfield their D should be disruptive enough to Woodard to make sustained drives quite difficult and even risky and FAR should have some short fields to work with to put the point total over the organic 20 that the offense can provide.

That said, BCI may very well cover but I aint putting money on the other side in my own game.

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Last edited by zenzog on Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:13 pm 
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Durham at Kansas City (-1) - Durham looked the goods in last week's match against San Antonio. The Bulldogs were able to shut down SAO's usual plan of running the ball and scrambling with QB Logan and without a few big plays in the first half, the game would have been a blowout. QB Ortiz, on the other hand, was very efficient and picked apart a Stingers secondary that really needed to step up if they wanted any chance at the dub.

Kansas City will take to the field for the first time this postseason following a great regular season and BYE. QB Grueneich turned in a career high 5,733 passing yards with 35 TDs but struggled with turnovers with 19 INTs and 5 fumbles. WR West was a cap casualty and the possession receiver's departure led to a definite decline in efficiency. On the other side, a surprisingly stout defensive line makes it difficult for opponents to match the Storm's pace. Youngsters DT Johnston and DE Noa have done an excellent job anchoring the right side but an unfortunate injury to starting DT Butterfield in week 16 opens the door for the RB Ellingsen and the Bulldogs on the ground.

This week's bout should be a closely contested affair. KCY hasn't looked as dominant towards the end of the season but their three losses have been to playoff teams. Their key player will likely be TE Dial as DUR could not contain SAO's TE Wayne on deeper routes. If the Bulldogs have not made the necessary adjustments, TE Dial is a more agile and elusive runner in the open and will take those big chunks. Durham will need to lean more on RB Ellingsen this week to limit KCY's time of possession. DET and DVY were both able to do that in their wins against the Storm though DUR will have opportunities against a somewhat weak secondary if QB Ortiz can stay upright.

All that being said, Durham has been sensational and I don't think I can lay points against them. I'll take the Bulldogs in a thriller 36-34.
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When KCY has the ball...don't worry about the run as they ran it nearly 10 times less than any other team despite being in plenty of blowouts and both of their RBs had more receptions than rushes.

They do a great job of spreading it around and the two very good WRs with TE Dial getting the most looks being the underneath YAC man at more than 5 per catch.

The OL looks terrible until you just discount the run blocking and realize they are pretty solid. The passing stats are weird to sort and digest as by going their so often it is hard to know what works best but it seems they are best at intermediate passing

DUR has huge holes in their run D at the DE spots and at OLB in their 34 but looks like they will do pretty well against Juan G and Co especially against eh short stuff and containing YAC with solid tackling LB and Ss on the inside. They jsut do what they do and nevr change their D from what I can tell but it seems like an approach that is working for them.

When DUR has the ball...they are hyper efficient and well balacned without sacrificing YAC and tops in avoiding TOs.

KCY has been very solid against eh run in any direction and has a semingly random assortment of a big bar or two in the secondary on most players

But quite weak against the intermeediate passes and in the RZ where games are often decided.

I am not gonna fade DUR again I don't think KCIs cuteness will be enough to compete at this stage of the POs against a complete team.

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Last edited by zenzog on Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:13 pm 
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Los Angeles at Atlanta (-2)
2 teams that were battling at the top of the conference throughout the season. This is year 11 of the Bailey era in LAS and just the 3rd time they've made the Divisional Round falling to archnemesis LVS twice but the runway is clear this time around. ATL hasn't made the Divisional round since 2044 where they beat Los Angeles before falling the CCs and this is 2nd season after swapping otu Clements for Klingbiel at the helm.

When LAS has the ball..you don't have to worry much about the run as other than outlier KCY they ran it the least inteh league and are terrible at teh edges. While being decent up the gut and that is where ATL is softest. So wouldn't surprise me to see a chunk or two but unless they make a big GP change I wouldn't put too much stock in the run game.

LAS is also in the bottom quarter for short and medium passing both efficiency and with chunks so it is kinda a wonder to see how they ended up here other than having a nice TO ratio on D. The talent is real however as they have a nice group of WRs with diverse skill sets.

ATL has been weak up the gut and to intermediate passing while being league best against short passes and lead the league in INTs forced. They also lack a real pass rush threat and play passive, vanilla defense essentially want you to have to make easy completions all the way down the field.

When ATL has the ball...they also don't run the ball and with good reason being league worst up the gut and merely average to the right but don't do it much. And with LB Welizczka over the middle maybe best not to change things up.

ATL also has a very talented trio or WRs and since Reis has come back form injury they are a far bigger threat with Reis running out of the slot in the 113 and beign esentialyl uncoverable.

ATL also has a very suspect OL but LAS doesn't have a true pass rush stud to challenge them there. And the ATL receivers should continue to be efficeent short and intermediate if not particularly dangerous especially with aforementioned Welizcczk patrolling the middle.

All in all two pretty similar teams from a roster perspective but I think ATL has a solid edge at receiver and their one stud D player is CB which is more relevant in this game. LAS has shown a propensity for GPing on D a bit more but the results have merely gotten poor talent to mediocre production. Taking ATL and actually think they will win by at least 6 say 30-20 with both Ds forcing some TOs.
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Los Angeles at Atlanta (-2) - The Outlaws looked surprisingly complete in a win against Santa Cruz last week. They probably should have won by an even bigger margin as three trips to the red zone were nicely held by heroics from the SCU defense. This squad is tough to evaluate as Ushi says above. It's hard to figure out what their plan to win is from watching their games. They have RB Donaldson, a generational player, but barely run the ball. WR Leighton, the highest paid receiver on the team, sees less than half the number of targets that the lumbering TE Maloney gets. The defense isn't particularly strong with one of the least talented secondary units in the league outside of all-league CB Barber. They get turnovers but that's not really a consistent plan is it?

Atlanta makes its first playoff appearance since 2058 when they were quickly swept aside by QB Bailey and the Outlaws. The Firebirds have just a handful of players that might still remember that embarrassing outing but DE Houston certainly does. He leads a defensive front that bounces from stellar to tragic week to week but mostly hovers around mediocre. The linebackers have been slow to plug gaps and tackle ball carriers though the secondary have been quick to blanket receivers when the ball is in the air. DE Houston needs to deliver a hell of a speech to get these guys going.

In his second year following the blockbuster trade, QB Klingbiel continues to be efficient in the blue and white. His offensive line has gone through some tough changes so the solid receiving corps, having been the difference during the season, will likely be the key to winning this match. WRs Shelton and Reis will be heavily targeted and whichever one isn't covered by CB Barber will feast. QB Bailey has that X-factor but I think Atlanta is the more complete team. I'll lay the points with the Firebirds and expect them to pull away in the second half: 30-26.

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Last edited by zenzog on Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:14 pm 
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Detroit at Saint Louis (-9)
Detroit hung on vs BKN last week after a couple of RZ stands let them survive a late comeback and win in OT but they won by yardage in a big way by absolutely suffocating the BKN rushing attack. STl only lost two games all year, both nailbiters to DUR but were 5-0 in close games.

Keep in mind it will be snowing and breezy.

When DET has the ball...won't rehash last week's notes too much but this is a buly balla nd posssession offense. Realible but when they struggle in teh RZ can be tough to put up points as we saw last week.

STL runs a 34 Eagle with run stoppers at the DL though Castagnola and both contain defenders are quite undersized. Plenty of teams are undersized and it doesn't matter until it does. This might be that week for STL.

The back 7 for STL has some decent coverage types at CB and solid tacklers at S but like many OP offensive teams seems reliant on a blitz and game script fueled pass rush and INTs to perform.

Big question is how many points can DET score bc I don't see STL stopping them easily.

When STL has the ball...they ran it more and further than any other team, maybe impacted some by running out the clock but their lead back had 361 carries and even the QB runs it 5 times a game. They are best running to the edges especially the left and while DET as top 5 vs the run the left side is where they were weakest, they are also without Dexter Green So while the LBs will likely still control the longer gains STL may have a chance to stick with their MO.

Liek their coutnerparts QB Joyner leads a cerebral attack that is tops in both short and deep completions pct but doesn't offer much explosion and they led the league with an outlier 47% 3rd down conversion rate.

All in all, similar teams, I like DET's roster better to be honest but that DL injury has me a bit concerned but I will still take the points with STL winning 20-16.
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Detroit at St. Louis (-9) - A matchup I hoped would never come... I just have to say props to the Silverbacks for being the best team in the league. I expect it to be a grind with the win hinging on DET stopping a stellar rushing attack. They were able to shut down BRK and did just enough on offense to edge out a win behind Manns' leg.

The Silverbacks defense is reasonably talented but hasn't been asked to do much. With an offense like that, all they need to do is enough to slow opponents down. One stalled drive here, a long FG attempt there, it's all good since there hasn't been a defense that could stop the STL attack. They should struggle to gain yardage against a tough DET front but if they don't and the yards come easy, it's just about over.

I think Detroit has the talent and game plan to keep this within 9 though it may be not be their year given the injuries to key players. STL wins but doesn't cover: 28-21.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:47 pm 
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lovely stuff - Thanks guys.

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