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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:23 am 
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Back to winning ways as we pick up 2 ATS wins to go 10-4-1 on the season.

Detroit might be the worst offense in the CFL right now. They've got 389 yards and 13 points over the last two weeks. ACI, TUC, IWC, TEN have all done better than that! Something must change for this team to make good on their preseason promise.

Fargo got the cover in a heartbreaking loss as QB Marischen pulled out some real fourth quarter magic in a 10 play 90 yard drive to snatch the lead. The Kodiaks are looking hot to trot again and should be one of the real favorites at this point in the season.

QB Gonzalez had the chance to pull off an unlikely fourth quarter comeback down 9 points but fell just short. With 54 seconds left at the DVY 23 yard line, the backup went for the jump ball in the end zone to WR Vanags but left it just short and CB Dunk got underneath for the pick. LVS will have to think long and hard about holding QB McKnight out against division rivals this week and next.

Atlanta (-1) at Texas - The Wolfpack-- err Firebirds now-- hit the road to take on a surprisingly feisty Texas Inferno. I wouldn't have picked TEX to ever have more wins than losses but they do look like a squad that can beat bad teams and loses to good ones. I'm thinking they're going to lose this week and I love ATL's short line.

The Firebirds are taking a nice step forward after trading for QB Klingbiel and going from a top 5 passing offense to the top 2. Boston's old QB was always blessed with talented receivers but this unit with WRs Reis, Shelton, and Terry are looking even better. RB Blackwell is doing a great job punching the ball in after chunk plays get them down the field. Despite HON managing to shut down ATL in week 4, the Firebirds offense is clicking in a big way and should be looking forward to a TEX defense that has little to fear.

Sophomore QB Marsh is looking like a serviceable quarterback but the team moves the ball much better on the ground. TEX would probably look better if they stuck to their strengths especially with WR Aschbacher out with a broken fibula. Outside of their blowout loss to RB Eagleton and the Dynomite, they've been surprisingly solid on defense too. HON's RB Murray, ACI's RB Hitchcock, and DVY's RB Donaldson all got stuffed by the Inferno which seems to excel against traditional power runners. It will be interesting to see if they can shift gears to beat a team that likely won't be running right into DTs Foreman and Pancake.

Atlanta is a clear favorite to me this week. Not only do they have more talent, but the matchup also just looks much better for them. ATL's WR Connor Terry isn't expected to play with a strained hamstring but WR Aschbacher being out hurts TEX much more. The Firebirds start putting some distance between themselves and the rest of their division: ATL 34-20.

Ohio at Baltimore (-1) - The no-longer-winless Ohio Sentries journey to Baltimore, wrapping up a 3 game series with the Atlantic division. OHI capitalized on 4 STL turnovers and held on for a 20-16 win at home. The Silverbacks played their worst game of the season and still miss RB Perkins so I'm not buying OHI turning their season around just yet.

The Sentries have always had a stout line and now they have a ball carrier to push the advantage. RB Johnston has proved a multi-faceted threat as long as he can get the ball and OHI is clearly working on giving him those opportunities. 25+ looks a game will go far. WR McCreadie is integrating nicely and prevents opponents from selling out against the run. Things are starting to come together for the offense, but it's still the defense that runs the show in Ohio. DE Willis and LB Wilson are the heart and soul of the Sentries and if not for them, these would be blowout losses instead of one score heartbreaks.

Baltimore is having a harder time integrating its rookies. First round pick WR Dillon is a non-factor through five weeks but an injury to WR Austin could see him getting a larger share of targets. The bigger loss is CB Hammond-- BAL gave up a whopping 316 yards to KCY and sorely needed his presence to steer the ball away from the Storm's elite WRs Padron and Elder. There is a lot to like on this Bombers squad and a few tweaks could be all they need to right the ship.

The Bombers have had a rough go away from McCormick Park but two of the next three will be at home. CB Hammond is expected to miss another week or two but Ohio isn't going to try to push the pace and take advantage of his absence-- they'll have their hands full trying to keep DE Hitchcock out of the backfield. I like the Bombers to notch a win this week and cover another short number: 21-17.

Hartford (-3) at Tennessee - The Attack have split their last four games with the latest disappointment at home to a plucky San Antonio. They looked in control for most of the game but the Stingers clutched up in the fourth quarter and stole one. I'd say they are squandering the easier portion of their schedule by not picking up more of these wins but hopefully a gimme against a completely lost Militia is in the cards.

QB Barker has been playing some really great ball through four weeks but the team is still struggling to put wins on the board. The Attack seem to be doing all the right things-- utilizing all-star TE Wick, RB Feagles, and WR Joseph in a variety of formations-- to put themselves ahead. It looks like the defense might not be holding up their end of the bargain. In losses to SCU and SAO, DT Ward and the defensive line gave up 6 and 5.82 yards per carry respectively. It's hard to point to one guy here but DT Ward was particularly bad. Breakdowns in his gaps led to at least 100 yards in these two games and two third down conversions. Adjusting to rookie DT Cecava's play might be responsible for some of his regression but the nine year veteran shouldn't be making these kinds of mistakes.

Tennessee stopped the slide against Shreveport this week but it might be more of a statement about the Pride rather than the Militia. It's clear there is a changing of the guard in the Deep South with SAO and NOS looking like the cream of the crop rather than the dregs. QB Ellison looked particularly bad when RB Stewart couldn't do more of the heavy lifting and what little magic QB Porto still had closed the door on this rivalry. The TEN backfield sucks. The TEN receivers suck. The TEN defense sucks (though they can catch the ball when it goes right to them). Injuries aren't helping but I really can't find anything good to say about the Militia. The team lives and dies with QB Porto and he's not getting any help.

The Attack aren't winning convincingly but we can see what they're trying to do through these four games. They have a plan and they're executing reasonably well. The defensive shortcomings got exposed against teams that are much better than TEN and I don't think the Militia has the pieces to do the same. Hartford wins and covers in a pretty straightforward one: 30-14.

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Last edited by zenzog on Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:55 pm 
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Another quality write up as usual. Good stuff


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 24, 2022 10:38 am 
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Well, you don't have much luck betting on Tennessee games....

And I didn't disagree with anything you said about Tennessee....

Again, this may say more about Hartford than Tennessee......

I'm hopeful to say that about 10 more times this year. :twisted:

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 24, 2022 1:31 pm 
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the curse is real

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 24, 2022 7:30 pm 
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Nailed our game pretty well. We weren't up to the task of taking down a good Atlanta team.

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