Maybe less of a write-up means I don't talk myself into bad bets. LVS was the only team to win and cover for us last week and I didn't have to go deep into why or how, no matchup considerations, no trends or detailed analyses... Just cold hard cash. We're 13-10-1 now but this week we'll go straight with the gut.
Durham at Omaha (-6) - The Bulldogs finally meet the Arrowheads for part one of the epic showdown. After going 8-0 against OMA and forcing GM jjsmitty's hand, DUR lost 2 of the last 3 meetings against QB Womble and the gang. Now the men in red and blue have a new front office that is still trying to get everything in place. It's not a good spot but I think these two teams are too close to be laying 6 points in either direction.
The Bulldogs found a nice stretch of form just before their week 8 BYE, beating three of the four Great Lakes teams and division rival Baltimore. GM Soxnation emphasized RB Ellingsen and the run game and the reward was 586 yards on 86 carries with one touchdown. It's been a great showing from one of the top running backs in the league but let's not forget that he was the single most dangerous pass catching back between 2061 and 2062. The front office isn't doing themselves any favors by not getting him involved from that angle. I do expect the team to continue to improve as ownership becomes more comfortable and familiar with the roster but this is something that is missing from their games.
Omaha is sitting 5-3 atop the Atlantic division after a bumpy start to the season. Well, I say after but it's not like the Arrowheads are putting teams to bed. They looked sloppy against the Great Lakes teams (going 2-2 with a 76-81 point spread) won just one of their 5 games by more than a single score. QB Womble has been good statistically and careful with the ball, but points have been hard to come by. Without that bombarding of STL in week 8, OMA would be sitting in the bottom half of the league in points per game-- a surprising result for a team with WR Dole. TE Hoffman missed a few of those games and we could see something different now that he's back but I'm holding my breath.
There isn't a lot separating these two teams in my mind and both teams have their issues. In my opinion, DUR has much more potential left to unlock while OMA is a little closer to their roster's peak.
I'll take the points in what should be a tightly contested matchup with OMA squeaking it out in the end: OMA wins 33-30.
Shreveport at Boston (-4) - Shreveport travels north to Boston off a surprising win against Hartford. They were sensational on third down, forcing 4 field goals (one miss), and made sure TE Wick did not have free rein to take over the game. QB Ellison looked stellar at all levels of the game, finding WR Goddard (who??) in the middle of the field and TE Olsen deep. The offensive and defensive lines did a fantastic job up front and really controlled the pace of the game. It was the kind of comprehensive win that, if repeated, would have the Pride climb up a few spots in my rankings.
Boston's hot and cold season continues to be plagued with offensive inconsistency. QB Clements posted his worst performance of the season against BRK and struggled to connect with star WR Daly. Coupled with RB Hancock's limited contributions (possibly still bothered by that left ankle), the Blizzard simply could not keep pace with a Brawlers team that has had its own fair share of issues. Defensively, BOS poor edge contain reared its ugly head again. DE Zukauskas was particularly poor last week and BRK attacked him relentlessly. I'm not sure what can be done after the trade deadline but I'd like to see BOS experiment with maybe putting LB Burke or LB Howe at the line.
At the end of the day, the talent advantage is undeniably with the home team this week and I do think they'll bounce back this week. Shreveport will do its best to shut down WR Daly and RB Hancock but TE Moffitt and WR Farr could well go off. They have a shot if their star defensive ends can put real pressure on QB Clements, but BOS's offensive line has been excellent. I just don't see it.
The Blizzard win and cover comfortably: 30-13.
Miami at Boise City (-3) - Miami looked real bad last week, constantly shooting themselves in both feet with every drive after the first half. I haven't lost faith though. Boise City is not a good team. QB Woodard started last week against PHI and his experience against that roster might explain why they put up a good fight but the Stampede is simply too old and untalented to win against the better teams in the league.
Miami picks up a nice win on the road to keep themselves in contention for the division: 27-14. I GAAAAAA-RON-TEEEEEE it.
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