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PostPosted: Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:19 pm 
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A tidy bounceback week brings us to 19-13-1. This week might be a little harder since we'll have to stick to teams with something to play for... but here goes nothing.

Miami at Atlanta (-3) - Miami is finding good form right when they need it, nabbing three wins in a row against Boise City, Denver, and St Louis. Scoring was always the team's weakness but they were able to find the end zone in all three games. WR Keeler has been electric and a big reason why the team is still in the wildcard race. The Talons still can't run the ball and without RG Farley I would expect that to continue this week.

The hosts are trying to find their footing after 4 of their last 6 games. Atlanta's QB Klingbiel has struggled in recent weeks since returning from a knee injury back in week 7. 31-42 for 379 yards last week looks good but it was against Atlantic City. Miami will be a much tougher assignment with a depleted receiving corps and CB Traxler expected to continue missing games. Since the Firebirds just aren't a team that runs, they'll have to try and exploit the mismatch that TE O'Neil should have against MIA's smaller defenders.

I'm going to ride Miami's momentum here. I like their defense against a depleted Atlanta team though QB Klingbiel could absolutely figure them out given time. DE Nichols and the rest of the Talons just have to get some dirt on his uniform and the win will follow. Miami wins this one: 27-24.

Alaska (-6) at Los Angeles - Alaska sits at 10-1 and has secured their playoff berth but we've seen some cracks in the façade. In each of the last three games, QB Marischen has thrown at least one interception. QB Marischen's completion rate is sitting at 55% which is well below his career average and statistically quite poor for the league. Luckily he doesn't have to be the Jimmy of old-- his athletic receivers have been bailing him out with big gains after the catch and the Kodiaks defense is spectacular behind DE Thompson's freakish pressure.

Los Angeles laid an egg against Shreveport last week but looked pretty good against Tucson and Atlanta before. The team is leaning a bit more on RB West and the run game with QB Bailey's knee tendinitis but they really aren't going to win without his arm and leadership. WRs Leighton, Campbell, and Massa should be putting up bigger numbers but inconsistent offensive production is holding the Outlaws back. Defensively they are doing fine, but the pass rush has gotten long in the tooth. A lot of players on that side of the ball just aren't the athletes they once were and it manifests in their mediocrity.

Los Angeles has no business winning this game but Alaska might take the opportunity to test new things. I hesitate to bet on any team that finds itself with this much success at this point in the season so give me the points with the Outlaws. Alaska wins but doesn't cover this one: 31-27.

Hartford (-2) at Durham - Hartford took care of business last week and are really looking like the team we expected them to be. RB Feagles isn't doing quite as well as I thought he would but he might fare better against a Durham team that hasn't been able to do much defensively.

The Bulldogs have looked really quite poor in recent weeks. I still contend that RB Ellingsen is being misused in this offense and should get the ball in his hands much more often. The recent injury to LB Shepherd will hurt any hope this team has of stopping their opponents. The game plan will have to be to run the field on offense but I don't think they'll find the room against the likes of DE Whorton and DT Ward.

In my mind, Hartford matches up well against Durham. Their secondary is big and fast and can run with Durham's receivers. TE Weikel and RB Ellingsen could find some success but that would require some significant change to their gameplan. So far the record between these two first round QBs sits at 1-0-1 to the guy who got picked second and I think he'll extend that record this week: Hartford wins 33-24.

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