New format for this year-- Ushi and I are going to provide our takes on the playoffs. Every game!
First off--
Quote:
Durham at San Antonio (+4) - The Bulldogs are on the longest win streak in the league (9!) but still take their first playoff game under new ownership on the road. The play of 2061's OROY and 2062's OPOY RB Ellingsen has been the difference maker as he accumulated 1208 offensive yards (956 rushing) and 11 TDs. WR Hindman has re-emerged as QB Ortiz's favored deep threat and the tandem has looked unstoppable down the stretch. Defensively they've been exceptional, allowing just 13.1 points per game in their last 9 games, even against teams like OMA, LVS, and STL. The consistently disruptive pressure from DE Flowers and rookie NT Metzenbaum is complemented by the inspired play of S Tubbs, CB Taylor, and S Marsh on the back end and frankly they look like the best unit in football right now.
The Stingers got back to winning ways after dropping 5 of 6 games during the week 8-14 stretch. Three wins in a row against SHR, PHI, and TEN feel great but qualitatively are not the best competition. The 26 year old QB Logan has not meaningfully improved since last season's one and done result and wild inconsistencies plague the team. Talented receivers are uniformed decoys more often than not while WR Brennan gets force fed targets. The team's defense has regressed significantly from 2063's campaign, dropping from 317.7 total yards allowed (4th) to 372.8 (30th) and 17.4 points allowed (5th) to 20.9 (13th). DC Quinn Sullivan has rightly taken some of the blame for the unit's struggles despite most of the defensive pieces returning, but they need to figure something out fast-- Durham isn't the same team that the Stingers trounced in week 4.
This matchup is relatively simple, strategically, for Durham: stop QB Logan. The dual threat QBs have been a challenge for the Bulldogs in the past but they've bottled QB Fryday, QB Joyner, and QB O'Neill in recent weeks. For San Antonio, the front seven have to step up: Either stop RB Ellingsen or pressure QB Ortiz. They were able to do the latter once so fingers crossed they'll be able to do it again.
I think Durham is the best team in football right now and in prime position to make a deep run if not win it all. CB Taylor held WR Brennan to just 41 yards in week 4 so QB Logan will need to find his other receivers. I'm not optimistic. Give me Durham to win and cover on the road: 33-17
Quote:
When DUR has the ball...they like to run it and do so well and have 4 targets above 7 YPA and are tops short passing making them a tough nut to crack for any DC. Complicating things further they are tops in RZ, very good on 3rd and tops in both INTs and Fumbles allowed.
They do have a dud at LT but while DE Winslett is a heckuva football player he is not a gamewrecking pass rusher and the poor LT talent hasn't had a meaningful affect on DUR's productivity. SAO does have a nice safety tandem but I don't think that will really force DUR to do anything differently, it seems they almost prefer to win with 20+ first downs and 24 points.
SAO plays a very vanilla D GP last time with just 3 play calls and no buzzing, doubles, spying or blitzing. If they are going to have a chance to disrupt they are going to pick their spots to try something. Because resting on their top RZ defense may lead to a disappointing result.
When SAO has the ball...they would be wise to run at those DEs and OLBs a lot which has not been their MO. DUR is a bit of studs and duds on D and those are the spots worth attacking on the ground.
SAO is no slouch with short passing but DUR has been lights out there, they don't go deep often but this may be a game to try it. DUR is good rushing the passer but that may be distorted data by them being so dang good all around.
SAO's secondary receivers are highly dependent on YAC to maintain the 7 YPA mark but DUR looks to be very solid tacklers against the short stuff by the stats if not by the bars.
DUR is a right behind SAO in RZ defense so whichever O can crack that puzzle will likely do well.
I'll take the points thinking that SAO should be able to put up a GP once more to not just stifle DUR but take advantage of the defensive liabilities.