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Fargo (-5) at Boise City - Fargo's wildcard game looked like a done deal until the final 3 minutes where some real magic from DVY and a lapse in focus from FAR culminated in a real clench moment with 0's on the clock. WR Hicks needed to fall on the onside kick but just... didn't. CB Ross needed to jump and bat the ball down but just... didn't. It looked like they started celebrating in their heads before the game actually ended.
Still, there were a lot of great things to say about the Sodbusters-- their offense was clicking well despite sputtering out in the red zone 3 times. QB Sherman threw an early interception but didn't let it affect his play later. WR Fence looked unstoppable and turned in his best performance of the year. NT Stone and the defensive line brick walled RB Lyons and a very good DVY rushing attack. They'll need all of these and more when they match up against longtime Sodbuster QB Woodard and the Stampede.
Did anyone expect Boise City to make playoffs, let alone capture a first round bye? No? Well in that case, I'll recap their season quickly. QB Fitzgerald started early in the season but found himself on the bench after a middling 3-2 start. The Stampede cleared out their backfield and brought in RB Hancock from BOS. Bargain bin replacements up and down the roster have outperformed expectations. The team's offensive line has three starters picked up off the street in C Lefebvre, LG Brock, and RG Gerhardt. LB Jochen, DT Hudson, TE Weikel, and S Bethea join a cast of veterans past their prime and they've all decided to make one last legitimate run.
Fargo should be winning this but I can't help but think there might be some magic left in these old Boise City dogs. FAR CB Parrish, LB Sutter, and S Watkins are banged up with only the former expected to play this week. BOI has some relatively fresher legs and these former all-star wideouts could have a field day. I like their chances to win, or at least cover: 28-21
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Fargo hasn't lost to Boise City since 2048 winning their last 6. But BOI now has former Sodbuster QB Woodard so the chance to reverse fortunes may be strong.
When FAR has the ball...we know what they will do, run it despite a lack of sustained success and try to spread targets to their 3 WRs and avoid 2 or more INTs. Totally reliant on 3rd down and RZ performance or aging WR athletic feats to put up significant points.
BOI has some solid run defenders in the front 7 and (with the return of Isaac Lincoln) the boundary corners to actually challenge those WRs and were top 5 against the intermediate passes that FAR favors and good against the short stuff as well. They don't have much of a rush though despite significant blitzing and most of FAR's duds in the passing game came when they were pressured a good bit. BOI did not seemingly get a lot of INTs but with Lincoln missing half the season that may be misleading.
I'd look for the run game to be dominant at times but go through dry spells enough that FAR is forced to win some of those matchups outside from time to time.
I'd like to see FAR find a way to work those LBs in coverage a bit but that may be asking a lot from the lack of talent they have at TE and RB for receiving.
When BOI has the ball...they did okay running it but FAR is a different animal vs the run than most teams and BOI is a bottom 8 run attempt team anyways.
They primarily operate out of the 113 and look to leverage high low concepts with plenty of downfield passing targets getting the first look though they haven't been particularly effective there.
They do throw it short a lot and are also efficient at it FAR was good at getting incompletes there but do give up YAC moreso than you might think.
At times FAR can have a rush but other games it is non existent, those soft Gs on BOI OL may struggle at times against the 34 Eagle and lips are sealed on if FAR plans on sending extra bodies or not. BOI was very good on 3rd down on O but then again so was FARs defense. FAR knows full well that Woodard will throw his share of picks and FAR has the ballhawks to take advantage.
All in all, I think FAR will do their thing on O and organically get to 20 points and maybe more with some RZ luck. On D they may give up some short YAC stuff but even if they get burned some downfield their D should be disruptive enough to Woodard to make sustained drives quite difficult and even risky and FAR should have some short fields to work with to put the point total over the organic 20 that the offense can provide.
That said, BCI may very well cover but I aint putting money on the other side in my own game.