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2015 Draft Discussio
http://www.thecfl.us/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3893		 Page 5 of 8
Author:  Cheesehead Craig [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 8:30 am ]
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[quote162f77b="TurfToe"][quote162f77b="Cheesehead Craig"]Given Mathias is in his 15th and likely final season, it was time to bring in a replacement and even though I didn't interview Santoki as I thought he would be taken already, I couldn't let him fall any further. He's a great value in the 3rd round, IMO.

It will be fun to see how Santoki and Ives compare as the new young guns in the RoF.[/quote162f77b]

I'll send my love to Santoki via my proxy, Shannon Hutchinson.[/quote162f77b]
That's why I drafted that OT in the first round. :wink:
Author:  TurfToe [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:10 am ]
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I'm glad SE Corey Ballard got selected. I don't have room for another SE and I wouldn't have been able to let him slide past 3.19. He's going to be a player...
Author:  JJ Smitty [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 9:54 am ]
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Got the center I wanted, Michael Laudenback. He's alittle weak but has the skills so I hope he works out.
Author:  Taco [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:11 am ]
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Doug!!! I was trying to trade up to get OT Cooley, and he kept falling, and falling, and then you take him the pick right before mine!!!
Author:  TurfToe [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:14 am ]
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[quoteec3497e="JJ Smitty"]Got the center I wanted, Michael Laudenback. He's alittle weak but has the skills so I hope he works out.[/quoteec3497e]

I was hoping you would have made my choice easier but you didn't take any of the 3 guys I really need.

I will have to think about who to take during my lunch meeting. Sorry to hold things up but I will pick within the hour.
Author:  Doug5984 [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:33 am ]
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Taco- I almost waited to draft him with my next pick, but was rushed so I went ahead and took him... You almost got him.

Is there anyway to view past draft history for each team? I want to say I've seen it on the site before but I can't find it.

I want to see how many WRs I have drafted that have turned out to be nothing at all.
Author:  Doug5984 [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:34 am ]
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And I must be going blind- Just clicked on my team page , and there it was right at the top...
Author:  MrBug708 [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:59 am ]
Post subject: 
[quote12b29e2="Cheesehead Craig"]Given Mathias is in his 15th and likely final season, it was time to bring in a replacement and even though I didn't interview Santoki as I thought he would be taken already, I couldn't let him fall any further. He's a great value in the 3rd round, IMO.

It will be fun to see how Santoki and Ives compare as the new young guns in the RoF.[/quote12b29e2]

It's curious to see how people value QB's in fof. I see at least three QB's available I would have drafted before Santoki
Author:  MrBug708 [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:10 am ]
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All four of my drafted rookies are in the top 5 of future estimate. DT Shannon is already the best player on my team.
Author:  TurfToe [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:17 am ]
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[quoteabdf8d0="MrBug708"]All four of my drafted rookies are in the top 5 of future estimate. DT Shannon is already the best player on my team.[/quoteabdf8d0]

That should not be hard when you have a top 3 pick. It's not easy to earn one of those.

You do realize that your team sucked last year, correct?
Author:  MrBug708 [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:39 am ]
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It's true, I was Arizona-esque.
Author:  Cheesehead Craig [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:46 am ]
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[quote9183008="MrBug708"]It's true, I was Arizona-esque.[/quote9183008]
Bitch.
Author:  TurfToe [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:47 am ]
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[quotedc20a9e="MrBug708"]It's true, I was Arizona-esque.[/quotedc20a9e]

Maybe I was a little harsh, it wasn't classic Arizona sucky, but very close. Three more top 3 picks and you'll get the Arizona label. :wink:
Author:  TurfToe [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:53 am ]
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[quote7b9282d="Cheesehead Craig"][quote7b9282d="MrBug708"]It's true, I was Arizona-esque.[/quote7b9282d]
Bitch.[/quote7b9282d]

[img7b9282d]http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h145/ ... nce9wt.gif[/img7b9282d]
Author:  Stretch [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:47 pm ]
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[quote3908793="TLK"]I was hoping to nab Mercury Marshall at 3.17. damn.[/quote3908793]

Excellent...(wrings hands)
Author:  MrBug708 [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:48 pm ]
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Marshall is a good pick up IMO. Im not sold on his every down ability, but he looks to be a fantastic ST player
Author:  Stretch [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:48 pm ]
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Anybody with game access tell me how my rookies look? I'm trapped at work until about 5:30 central.

I'm itching to see how Small and Palacios look.
Author:  JJ Smitty [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:49 pm ]
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[quotef809204="Stretch"]Anybody with game access tell me how my rookies look? I'm trapped at work until about 5:30 central.

I'm itching to see how Small and Palacios look.[/quotef809204]

Small is the man...
Author:  timmynausea [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:55 pm ]
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I see Small as 43/83 and Palacios as 29/69. S Lueken is 22/54.
Author:  Stretch [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 1:12 pm ]
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[quote80205b7="timmynausea"]I see Small as 43/83 and Palacios as 29/69. S Lueken is 22/54.[/quote80205b7]

Thanks Timmy!

Small is about what I expected.
Palacios is about 5 points better than I expected.
Lueken is about 7 points worse than I expected but he was a high volatility guy.
Author:  Cheesehead Craig [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 1:28 pm ]
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[quote873d29f="Stretch"][quote873d29f="timmynausea"]I see Small as 43/83 and Palacios as 29/69. S Lueken is 22/54.[/quote873d29f]

Thanks Timmy!

Small is about what I expected.
Palacios is about 5 points better than I expected.
Lueken is about 7 points worse than I expected but he was a high volatility guy.[/quote873d29f]
I thought you took Lueken a bit high. I liked him and my scout thought he was underrated. Good player though.
Author:  TurfToe [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 1:31 pm ]
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Maybe I'm just challenged but how are you guys projecting Curr./Fut. estimates on these guys? At least to the point of knowing how many points they are off of that estimate.

I have ballpark expectations of where these guys should be but not enough to know they are off 5 points. :smt017

Significantly above and below are obvious but slight variations should be next to impossible to determine IMO. Like I said, I could just be challenged too...
Author:  timmynausea [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 2:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
[quotee24456d="TurfToe"]Maybe I'm just challenged but how are you guys projecting Curr./Fut. estimates on these guys? At least to the point of knowing how many points they are off of that estimate.

I have ballpark expectations of where these guys should be but not enough to know they are off 5 points. :smt017

Significantly above and below are obvious but slight variations should be next to impossible to determine IMO. Like I said, I could just be challenged too...[/quotee24456d]

I think you are misunderstanding. These aren't projections. We are just looking at the rosters now that Taco has entered the first 3 rounds or so of picks. As far as I know no new information is actually available, though. We are just seeing the numbers that match up with the scouted bars we've seen all along. Training camp is when we start to see some real results (volatility, unmasking, scout error adjustments, etc.)

Edit: OK, I actually missed Stretch's projections before I wrote that and thought you were talking about the numbers I posted as projections.
Author:  TurfToe [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 2:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
[quotec190124="timmynausea"][quotec190124="TurfToe"]Maybe I'm just challenged but how are you guys projecting Curr./Fut. estimates on these guys? At least to the point of knowing how many points they are off of that estimate.

I have ballpark expectations of where these guys should be but not enough to know they are off 5 points. :smt017

Significantly above and below are obvious but slight variations should be next to impossible to determine IMO. Like I said, I could just be challenged too...[/quotec190124]

I think you are misunderstanding. These aren't projections. We are just looking at the rosters now that Taco has entered the first 3 rounds or so of picks. As far as I know no new information is actually available, though. We are just seeing the numbers that match up with the scouted bars we've seen all along. Training camp is when we start to see some real results (volatility, unmasking, scout error adjustments, etc.)

Edit: OK, I actually missed Stretch's projections before I wrote that and thought you were talking about the numbers I posted as projections.[/quotec190124]

Yes, and that's not the first time I've heard discussions of people projecting current/futures for players in the draft class. Makes me feel like I am missing something or people are just totally guestimating, which is about as useful as interviews IMO. :lol:
Author:  Stretch [ Thu Oct 25, 2007 4:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
[quote0f03063="TurfToe"]
Yes, and that's not the first time I've heard discussions of people projecting current/futures for players in the draft class. Makes me feel like I am missing something or people are just totally guestimating, which is about as useful as interviews IMO. :lol:[/quote0f03063]

I use Stelmack's FOF 2K7 Utility Suiteto output the entire draft class into a CSV file. I then average all of the ratings and get an approximate future value before training camp.

Here's how accurate this was this year for the first 10 picks (according to my scout who is average at QB, O-Line and CB but excellent at D-Line).

<pre>
Pick Predict Actual Diff
1. QB Carl Bradford 69 73 4
2. NT Eric Shannon 79 87 8
3. CB Junior Griffith 71 91 20
4. QB Hunter Walker 74 82 8
5. CB Hugh Fuller 66 79 13
6. CB Neal Summers 68 63 -5
7. DE Josh Andrews 68 64 -4
8. G Bernard Small 82 83 1
9. WR Ted Tosheff 67 71 4
10. DE J.R. Biggs 69 69 0
</pre>

This is about what I expect at the top of the draft. There tends to be wild swings up at the top of the draft.

Let's look at the bottom 5 of the 2nd round:

<pre>
60 LB Vince Stephens 48 42 -6
61 DE Earl Chapman 38 44 6
62 WR Butch Vance 41 41 0
63 DT Brett Briggs 54 52 2
64 DE Cole Dunn 60 57 -3
</pre>

Fewer wild swings down here.

It's not the best system in the world but it works for me.
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