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| 2061 Betting Preview - Week 11 http://www.thecfl.us/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10885 |
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| Author: | zenzog [ Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2061 Betting Preview - Week 11 |
2/3 last week brings our record to 11/19... we had to skip week 10 but we're back! Detroit at Kansas City (-12) - It's always hard to put numbers to these things but 12 seems mighty high for a divisional rivalry. These two teams are on slightly different trajectories this season, but a strong showing from the Vampires in week 10 has me seeing some value this week. QB DiCosomo picked up his second win of the season and completed the season sweep of IWC last week. The return of LB Carr might have had something to do with the surprisingly solid defense and special teams play, but Scottie looked excellent under center. He connected on 20 of his 25 passes for 264 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions. The emergence of rookie WR Jeffries as another deep threat has opened up a lot for this offense and it will be interesting to see if it continues. The Storm averaged over 30 points per game in their 4 game win streak-- the 1-4 start looks distant in the rearview mirror as they are now tied up with IWC at the top of the division. Unfortunately injuries are starting to pile up and the latest victim is star WR Alexander Elder. With DT Butterfield, WR West, LB West, and a couple of guys on the OL banged up or visibly fatigued, can KCY put together a strong showing? DET and KCY have gone back and forth in the last few years but most games have been close. I expect the same kind of slugfest and for the Vampires to cover, but probably lose: KCY 27-24. Fargo (-1) at El Paso - The bout to determine the winner of the Cavalry division looks like a banger and though the value is minimal with this line, I like the underdog here. QB Mitchem looks great in Green and Gray and the team is rocking and rolling to a top seed in the playoffs. Look at their team summary and you'll see an offense ranked tops in almost every category. It's a tough offense to stop and we haven't really seen anyone succeed, but the first step is to win the turnover battle as TEX and MIA did. On the other side, El Paso has put together a very compelling case for their claim to the division. They are as cohesive a unit as we've seen in the league now after several seasons together and as well balanced as their opponents. This week, I'm looking at TE McKenzie to pull out some magic as FAR will be missing LB Sutter in the middle. He's already QB Sullivan's favorite target, particularly in the end zone, and should feast. I'm not sure which team will win, but the + money sounds good to me. Give me El Paso at home in a surprisingly low scoring game: 24-21. Cleveland at Iowa City (-4) - The other decider for tops of the division pits the Argonauts against the Sentries. It's a tight race in the Great Lakes division and this game is pivotal for both teams. CLE has gone with the older veteran in QB Kelley over the young QB Minton and I think it's safe to say that hasn't worked out. The team has only won one out of five with Kelley and that was against a floundering Detroit. It looks like they'll be trotting him out again this week but I don't think they should. RB Mansour and Co. have a great shot at winning the division-- why aren't they trying a bit harder to find the best personnel for that? The Argonauts have dropped two after going on a nice five game streak and their latest loss to the Vampires is the most damning. DET held IWC to 10 points or less in their two games and they face another stout defense in CLE. I've noticed IWC is quick to give up on the run when they fall behind but they've actually had a lot of success with RBs Stewart and Fields keeping the pressure off QB Joslyn. Sure they may not have the best matchup this week but they can't allow CLE to sell out to stop the pass. I think the Sentries are a but underrated at the moment after their run of losses and I'll take them to cover here. A win certainly is possible, but I haven't been impressed with QB Kelley's play. IWC wins, 28-27. |
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| Author: | Ternvig [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:12 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 11 |
Nice write-up. I expect QB Juan to scramble around 15 times. A Steelers worthy front 7 - now fit - against a depleted and tired Oline - not good. Fargo will - if they don't get hit by penalties - take the El Paso game. |
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| Author: | landshark44 [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 8:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 11 |
nice z.... i'll take 24-21... |
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| Author: | Ushikawa [ Tue Jul 06, 2021 9:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 11 |
fat chance...we are gonna either win by 10+ or lose by 10+, likely the latter |
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| Author: | zenzog [ Wed Jul 07, 2021 7:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Week 11 |
Quote: I expect QB Juan to scramble around 15 times.
My defense's big brain strategy to maintain its suspiciously good metrics: Give up all the points on special teams or on turnovers. Opponent's can't gain yards if they start on my half of the field every time...
A Steelers worthy front 7 - now fit - against a depleted and tired Oline - not good. |
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