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| 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships http://www.thecfl.us/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10909 |
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| Author: | zenzog [ Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
We have 4 all-too-familiar faces left in the Playoffs and some pretty close lines to boot. Can we find betting value this week? Brooklyn (-3) at Durham - One of the most exciting pre-game storylines was back in 2059 when QB Barker and the Hartford Attack met DUR for the first time. Hard nosed defense on both sides dictated a grimy, gritty game and we fans were left wondering "wait... who was better? Who IS better?" Many of us forget that there are two other guys drafted just a bit later that could still leave their mark on the CFL. QB Woodford didn't get the reins for this Brawlers team until just last season (some might say he still doesn't, with veteran QB Allen waiting on the sidelines) but as a starter he posts an impressive 26-9 record as well as two playoff berths. Though many pundits label him a system QB, he's 2-0 against the Bulldogs and could make it a hat trick after a week 17 rest looks to have revitalized the young man's play. The game opened last week as a pick 'em but quickly shifted to a BKN -3 as the Bulldogs put out an injury report with QB Ortiz on it. Even though he put up a career high 6 TDs (plus one with his legs!), he was slow to get up after the two sacks and didn't play as aggressively as we've seen in the past. He'll be depending on an offensive line that has shown weakness in pass protection this season. Against Brooklyn's LB Vance and DE Beck, two premier pass rushers that are going to cause problems if they get home, I might have to side with the visitors. Both secondaries will have their hands full too. BKN's WR Fernandes is as slippery as they come while DUR's stable of talent will eventually find matchup wins as they run through their paces. I look to WR Hindman here to make a big impact-- he was held to just 75 yards on 16 targets through both meetings and that simply won't do this week. I love taking the home underdog in this spot but I think GM Gulberry's boys are too experienced and disciplined to let this one slip. The Brawlers are going to make their third CFL Bowl appearance in 4 years: 28-20. Las Vegas at Fargo (-2) - The one thing we can safely say about this year's CFL Bowl is that we will be pitting a young QB against an old QB. Again. We can't say who, but we know that'll be the matchup. Fargo has had its ups and downs since winning it all in 2056 and finally moved on from the old gunslinger QB Woodard to a more orthodox pocket passer in QB Mitchem. It's been a good look so far as Devan posted career best numbers surrounded by WRs Crabtree, Fence, and RB Holzer. They've even managed to stay healthy up to now. The defensive stars haven't been as lucky and the team will be missing DROY DE Almeda and LB Sutter. The Sodbusters were flush with talent on D so they've been doing fine but can they clear this hurdle? Las Vegas found a way to win last week against a red hot Rockets team that, by all accounts, should have walked away with a convincing dub. The relentless attack by DEs Anagnostis and Brock forced an amazing three pick sixes in the final quarter. We've been seeing this for years now but when this Rounders team wins, it's because their front seven makes opposing QBs make mistakes. DROY candidate LB Hargreaves might just take this unit from unfair to unbeatable. And he's only 22! We can talk about other players and matchups but it would account for maybe 10% of this game's result. The only thing that matters is can FAR keep QB Mitchem upright long enough to find someone downfield. If their week 13 result is any indication... all signs point to no. That being said, the Sodbusters are expecting C Fuller to play (he didn't back in week 13). He plays a huge role in guys picking up their assignments when opponents throw curve balls and often helps double up troublesome rushers. It could be enough... As a betting man, I just can't pass up LVS as underdogs. On top of that QB Mitchem almost certainly has some trauma from their past meetings (twice with DET). The defending champs advance to yet another CFL Bowl appearance: 36-28. |
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| Author: | TurfToe [ Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Quote:
The game opened last week as a pick 'em but quickly shifted to a BKN -3 as the Bulldogs put out an injury report with QB Ortiz on it. Even though he put up a career high 6 TDs, he was slow to get up after the two sacks and didn't play as aggressively as we've seen in the past.
To think that Ortiz did what he did last week at less than 100%... 
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| Author: | zenzog [ Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Quote: To think that Ortiz did what he did last week at less than 100%... |
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| Author: | Steel [ Mon Aug 16, 2021 8:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Ortiz has a career record of 51-19-1. He's actually 0-4 against Brooklyn. They definitely have our number. I guess the two positives we can look at in this match up: 1. We are home, which we weren't in the last two meetings. 2. We did an excellent job shutting down Brooklyns offense last game we played them. Somewhat impressive, given the fact our own offense didn't even bother showing up for that game to help the defense out. |
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| Author: | Ternvig [ Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Didn't Ortiz get 7 TDs? He ran in the last one 
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| Author: | zenzog [ Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Quote: Didn't Ortiz get 7 TDs?
Oops, corrected original post for accuracy!
He ran in the last one |
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| Author: | Dean Gullberry [ Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Brooklyn loves your confidence in us Zen, but there are couple, as-mentioned, bad omens in this game. First we are surprised to be the favorite at Durham which is historically a hard place to win. Really think the Bulldogs should be the 3-point favorites. I never realized that Ortiz is 0-4 against us. That's the other...he is due. Throw out the previous game this year as the Bulldogs are healthier and have a juggernaut of an offense. Only way to stop it is to keep it off the field. Hoping to string together some drives on offense and get a little lucky on defense and special teams. Whoever wins will have their hands full against the Rounder/Sodbuster matchup. We had the honor of playing Fargo earlier this year and they handed it to the Brawlers. Good luck Steel and thanks for the hype Zenzog, Dean |
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| Author: | Steel [ Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Honestly, no idea what will happen in this game. I usually have an idea of what to expect against my opponents, but this one, I'm about as unsure as anyone can be. Good luck, Dean. |
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| Author: | TurfToe [ Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2061 Betting Preview - Conference Championships |
Good luck to everyone tomorrow....even Ush. Game on! |
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