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PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2021 3:14 pm 
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2-1 is a good way to start... LVS even came through on the moneyline which is nice. Really surprised that NOS beat the bricks off of TEN but I guess that can happen if a team doesn't keep grinding.

This week, I'll look to fade these rebuilding teams as I think the lines haven't completely adjusted yet.

Boise City (-2) at San Antonio - It seemed like QB Doser would return for another crack at greatness with the Stampede but after 13 seasons, the front office decided to let him walk. In an effort to save money I presume, QB Cooper Allen comes in to throw the deep ball to the outstanding WRs Wagner and Brown. The offense didn't miss a beat in an impressive win against ALA so I'm thinking maybe there's a little magic left here, but boy this team is getting old.

SAO equaled their 2061 win total with a decisive win on the road against the longtime division leaders in Shreveport. The defense, led by DE Bilodeau, put the clamps on QB Scott to bag their first win against the Pride at the Swamp since 2056. Sophomore QB Logan looked pretty good too, though miscues with his young receivers hurt his efficiency and occasionally forced him to scramble out of the pocket. This is a young team and we're going to see these kinds of mistakes but Shreveport and Tennessee have been put on notice.

I see some value in the Stampede as a short favorite this week. WR Warren was a non factor for SHR, but there is a gulf between him and a generational talent like WR Fred Wagner. This BCI offense has teeth and I think if they get into a shootout, an inexperienced QB and receivers just won't be able to keep up-- especially with guys like CB Doug "King" Cheli on the field. The Stampede win and cover on the road: 36-30.

Brooklyn (-4) at Tucson - The Brawlers lost at home against Hartford this week. It was a particularly tough night for QB Woodford who threw two interceptions and failed to get into any real rhythm with WRs Porter and Fernandes. The ground game didn't do BKN any favors either and the team fell cheaply to a balanced Attack. So what do you need to do if you want to boost your team's morale? Survey says, "Play Tucson."

Tucson doesn't seem to have a plan for this season and an opening loss to LAS by 23 points-- they won both matchups last season by just 2 and 4 points respectively-- really is not a good look. Other than some efficient running by RB Mueller there isn't anything worth mentioning and until something changes dramatically with this franchise, I think they'll only win 2 games at best.

Take whatever line you can get on BKN because they will have a field day this week: the Brawlers get right 30-7.

Honolulu (-2) at Atlantic City - Another potentially one-sided matchup this week comes to us courtesy of the Phantoms. This team got absolutely shellacked by the Boston Blizzard and it's hard to see this week's matchup going any differently.

Problems start with QB Ehrlich who had apparently won the starter spot during the preseason but sophomore QB Beauregard played all 16 games last season. Is this front office already jumping ship? Ehrlich did some great work at Wake Forest but this was almost 7 years ago and he's done nothing since coming to the CFL. The offensive line is getting older and lacked any sort of push at the line to allow RB Hitchcock space to run. The defense would normally be holding their own but they were on the field for a full 38 minutes and wore down quickly.

Honolulu lost a close one to the visiting Rounders but they did a lot of things well and it could've gone either way. Penalties swung crucial drives and uncharacteristic mistakes by both teams were deciding factors. The quality of this team is just leaps and bounds above anything the Phantoms are going to put out there.

This game could be close if the ACI defense makes it close but I think HON will cruise to a W this week. FS Jeff Witt is questionable to go for ACI and if he misses this game there really isn't anyone keeping WRs Keith or McCreadie from absolutely popping off. The Sharks win and cover in a rout: 33-12.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:21 pm 
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Playing it pretty safe? :-D

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:14 am 
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Not safe enough :(

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:20 pm 
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Take whatever line you can get on BKN because they will have a field day this week: the Brawlers get right 30-7.
Actual Score: 30-7 with a garbage time TD

The Detroit Sportsbook nailed that one, but stubbed their toe on the Honolulu/Atlantic City game. I didn't see ACI winning either, just when you think it is a good line.

Thanks Zen,
Dean

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