a 2-1 week gets us somewhat back on track... 12-15 on the season isn't the worst but I'd much rather be up money. DVY did about what I expected them too but really they probably should have won. ALA did a great job forcing field goals in the red zone. QB Buckley is struggling hard to convert on 3rd and long and I don't know if the inside throw across the middle is something he has in his repertoire. Durham's emphasis on offense met its match this week as OMA slapped the visitors around. The 8-0 streak for QB Ortiz is finally ended. From here on out we're looking at only betting teams that are trying to win so hopefully we can make our money back.

Texas at Atlanta (-10) - 1-1 fading TEX... SEA missing a 36yd FG to get the push was a bummer but I guess that's what happens when you lay points with a mediocre team. ATL can't afford too many more slip-ups if they want their season to continue. I'll lay the double digits with ATL against a truly abysmal TEX. 36-13.

Los Angeles (-10) at Honolulu - HON's surprising decision to trade away some of its more valuable players is clearly influencing this line. The look-ahead line at the local bookies a week ago had the Sharks as a 5 point dog and that's up to 10 just about everywhere now. If you wanted to back LAS I think the value is gone but this could be a spot for the home dog.

The Outlaws led again by QB Bailey have looked like a reasonably competitive team this season. Before the week 9 BYE they completely bodied DEN and LVS , winning by a combined 46 points, but it's hard for me to pinpoint exactly what it is they're doing well. They aren't topping the charts in turnovers, it's not an overperforming defensive effort... and offensively too, they're somewhat mediocre in most respects. They are, however, sustaining long drives and getting into scoring positions on many of their possessions. That goes back to QB Bailey's experience and leadership.

Fargo added to Honolulu's woes this week but realistically speaking I don't think that the team's in a much worse position than they were before the trade. WR McCreadie's targets went to WR Washington, rookie CB Lyle slotted in for CB Gibb, and DE Pickrell came on a bit more for the departing DE Richey. Statistically they're slightly worse but if you covered up the names on the jerseys I wouldn't be able to tell you who was who.

I can't speak for the locker room environment but I can say that I think this 10 point spread is big overreaction. LAS is a good team but they aren't great and as the saying goes "Good teams win, great teams cover." I'll take the +10 with the home team this week even if I expect them to lose: LAS wins 27-21.

St Louis at Baltimore (-2) - We travel to the east coast for a game with significant playoff implications. This is a must win for both teams with a wildcard spot potentially up for grabs. I've written about Baltimore a few times but haven't made much money picking them to win or cover so maybe the quietly impressive visitors are the play.

I'm not sure how exactly to characterize STL's win against BOS last week. The Blizzard went up 13-0 and it looked like the Arch hadn't even gotten up for the game but a big pick six from QB Klingbiel got their engines going. The defense went from traffic cones to a straight up brick wall after that play-- BOS managed just 65 more yards out of their remaining 8 possessions. That being said... STL still needed some shenanigans to squeak out the one point win and I'm not sure where I put them in my power rankings. It's all happening with such little fanfare-- I mean QB Joyner is #3 in QBR this season. Do people know that?

Baltimore ended up not being able to hang with BRK but I don't blame them. They fought back in the second half and were only a few stops away from making it a very competitive match. They did well keeping RB Shannon from running all over them and WR Porter only caught half of his targets but BRK managed to find the points they needed.

STL is going to have to start strong to beat Baltimore at home this week. QB Joyner will have to make some plays when a tough Bombers front takes RB Perkins out of his comfort zone. Could we see more carries from the smaller, nimbler RB Rogers? Will QB Joyner find success throwing into FS Leskun and CB Hammond? My models have BAL as a 4 point favorite and I think that makes sense going by the matchups and personnel. I'll lay the points one last time with the Bombers in a must win at home: BAL wins 27-20.

Boise City at Alaska (-4) - The Ring of Ice has some drama brewing this week-- a win goes a long way in determining the division champion-- but it involves two teams trending opposite directions. BOI's remarkable run behind the youngster QB Fitzgerald looks like it's coming to an end while ALA has established itself as one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league.

SCU and ATL thoroughly outplayed the BOI defense and were able to move the ball pretty easily. BOI's offense stayed the course and moved the ball well themselves but couldn't crack the endzone to keep pace. The Stampede is an older team and it is starting to show. The secondary can't keep up with the young speedsters in the league. WRs Wagner and Brown are still very good but without the explosive power and strength to be the YAC machines of old. RBs Lovallo and Arnold are on the wrong side of 30. It's not a great look and I don't see this improving as the season drags on.

The Copperheads made it close in the 4th quarter but ALA had the game well in hand. RB Harden is on pace for one of the best seasons by a rookie in recent memory and it has helped an aging QB Marischen make one last run at the chip. The Kodiaks are a solid team with few weaknesses and I like what I see week after week. I realize BOI won at home week 1 but there were some shenanigans in the last two minutes. The Kodiaks are a better team now and the Stampede is a little worse. I'll lay the points with ALA this week: They win 34-24 and start to run away with the division.

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GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057