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We end the season 25-23... a rough last few games where the unexpected happened. In any case, I believe we have some value in the two road dogs this week.
El Paso at Fargo (-3) - One of the most evenly matched rivalries in the CFL plays out in the postseason this week-- the last 14 regular season games have gone 7-7 between ELP and FAR. And curiously, the visiting team has won the last 6 meetings. There's certainly betting value in El Paso this week but Fargo would love to win back to back titles.
El Paso's season may look like regression from last, injuries to QB Sullivan and other top contributors notwithstanding, but actually the team improved on both ends of the game. Last season, ELP was averaging 358 yards and 26.8 points per game on offense, with a very good 38.5% 3rd down conversion rate. This year, all of those metrics are up to 415 yards, 28.1 points, and 46.8% on third downs. Defensively they've tightened up against both the rush (4.36ypc allowed in 2061, down to 3.78 in 2062) and the pass (251.8 yds, 58.5% pct in 2061 down to 231.9 yards and 54.4% pct in 2062). They've allowed fewer points per game as well. So how are they 10-6 down from 12-4? Well... the they've lost some really close games against top competition. 5 of their 6 losses were by just one score, two by a single point! But that is to say, this team has definitely improved and looks to be a strong contender to go deep.
Injuries did play a part in those close losses and they'll continue to affect ELP this week. Several key players are banged up, though only DE Wiggins is expected to sit this week. C Dar Dar and WR Johnstone did play in their must-win against DEN last week but did not look like they were playing at full strength, so this could play a part against Fargo's brutal defense.
GM Ushikawa followed up on a successful 2061 campaign by delivering another 11-5 and postseason berth, but things looked shaky at times. A 0-2 start with losses to DEN and SEA sprinkled in had fans holding their breath. The Sodbusters were still the same offensive juggernaut of years past but now, as LBs Almeda and DE Bradford come into their prime, this is a top notch defensive unit as well. Fargo improved from 4.54 ypc allowed in 2061 to 3.66 ypc in 2062. They also tightened up against the pass, allowing just 10.13 yards per catch and 5.86 yards per attempt, down from 11.26 and 6.47 in 2061. This is supremely impressive for a team that was really more focused on staying healthy for the playoffs.
All in all, this is a very even match that promises to be a high scoring affair. I give the edge to the Rockets, despite the injuries, as they've been the more consistent team with a bit better chase after the ball. Fargo has had issues protecting the ball and I suspect a few turnovers will swing this one. Give me El Paso here: 34-27. It'll be a cold game in Fargo this week with snow in the forecast. When the fields get icy, people start slipping, so consider that when betting the O/U.
Detroit at Brooklyn (-4) - This next game could be a snoozer, but the value should be with the Vampires catching 4 points in what should be a very low scoring game.
Detroit's season looked good for a while, winning 8 straight in the first half of the season, but we now know that their opponents were not very good. The Vampires had trouble moving the ball and even bigger trouble scoring, but could impose their will on defense. The whole unit is playing at a high level but FS Cox's record breaking season has them in games they probably shouldn't be winning. The Vampires have generally been good against teams that have limited receiving weapons and the Brawlers could fall in that camp. WRs Porter and Fernandes are very good, but this DET secondary will force someone else to step up.
Brooklyn's consistency is commendable, having won their division 4 seasons in a row, but fans are clamoring for a championship and not consolation prizes. If they can't win retaining most of their core, something surely has to give. This season looks to be their best chance-- QB Woodford is connecting more with deeper routes and that has opened up a lot of opportunities to score points.
In a game that features the top two defenses in the league (by points allowed), it's the offense that has to make plays. The emergence of WR Porter has given BRK the flexibility the team lacked in past playoff runs. On the other side, RB Burton has done great work for DET in forcing opponents to respect the run. While many teams still find success dropping back in coverage, stacking the box is becoming more commonplace and allowing QB DiCosomo the chance to read defenses and make easy completions. He may not find as much success this time against a competent and disciplined Brooklyn though, and I think the Brawlers will eke out this win in the end. I will take the visitors to lose by just a field goal: BRK wins 19-16.
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GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057
Last edited by zenzog on Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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