I was doomed as soon as I typed the words "heater". Knocked down a peg going 0-2-1 and 8-3-1 on the season.

Los Angeles just flat out didn't play well. They probably should've still won but the turnovers were too much. WR Campbell played a dud of a game-- couldn't really get open and when he did, QB Bailey was getting chased around and couldn't get a good throw off. Still don't think TEX is any good but they might be better than I thought.

The Voodoos looked good and definitely should've covered... ticky tacky penalties, a blocked FG, and some rookie mistakes allowed for the backdoor cover from ACI.

Seattle was just... ugh, what an unlucky game. Fumbled in their own territory, swiss cheese defense... The Spartans are definitely not a team I'm going to put money on this season.

I got a little cute last week, this week should go better:
Omaha (-5) at Detroit - If you told me the Arrowheads didn't allow a single offensive touchdown against the Storm, I'd have guessed it was a double digit win. Instead, it was nearly a double digit loss. The offense was just fits and starts-- one drive would go for 75 yards and a TD, the next would be a fumble on their side of the field. It was a decent game defensively but they absolutely needed more from RB Johnstone and WR Dole. TE Hoffman sat for his second consecutive week due to a sprained thumb and no doubt they could've used his size and athleticism against the smaller KCY defenders.

Omaha isn't the only team failing to live up to expectations. The Detroit Vampires are also 2-2 after dropping their second to a winless Iowa City squad. After a great TD run by RB Burton was called back, the Vampires folded like a cheap suit and couldn't get anything going. Rookie TE Coleman continues to look like the best receiver on the team but miscues along the offensive line meant for a long 60 minutes for QB DiCosomo and company. Detroit looks bad and, whether that's roster decisions or changes in the playstyle, they need to figure something out before the season gets out of reach.

History would say that the teams are evenly matched and it's hard to say which is better this time around-- both teams are struggling to meet expectations. Detroit's pass rush is settling into a rhythm and DEs Nager and Green will need to keep QB Womble off balance. Omaha's one-two punch of RBs Johnstone and Ashworth disappeared last week but play a huge part in the team's success. The marquee matchup of WR Dole vs WR Von Wyss has lost a bit of its luster with age but I suspect the receiver with the bigger day is going to be the deciding factor in this game.

All that being said, from a betting perspective this is a 50-50. I see some solid EV in a Detroit bet to cover, maybe even to win, and I'll be taking the points. Omaha may win but it'll be close: OMA 24-21.

Alaska (-3) at Fargo - The Kodiaks are good. Real good. They are winning home games by an average of 22 points. Does that even make any sense? Many expected a tough match against a MIA defense that was a top 10 unit in 2062 and still held PHI and OMA to relatively pedestrian numbers. Nope. QB Marischen and RB Harden completely dismantled the Talons en route to a 20 point win with 535 offensive yards. In the first half, QB Marischen was spreading the ball around, finding WRs Grauer, Greer, and Jennings for big chunks. When MIA had tightened up their coverage in the second half, the wily veteran made use of TE Coffey's huge 6'7" frame and made 82 yards on 4 catches look easy. I knew they'd be good but I have them as the best team in the league right now.

The Sodbusters are good too but they aren't winning comfortably. They trailed in last week's game against BOI for the first 56 minutes and could well have lost if not for an incredible strip sack by DE Stai that resulted in a scoop and score to put the game away. Fargo's pass rush is starting to put serious pressure on opponents-- DE Bradford is proving an absolutely disruptive force on the line and certainly one of the most improved defenders from last season. Production from WRs Fence, Crabtree, and RB Holzer are all good but then it just falls off. It's a win if you can force QB Mitchem to toss the ball towards TE Mayes, TE Boon, WR Sigrest, or really anyone else. I expect to see the Sodbusters in January but the offensive depth needs to start working.

This matchup will be won in the trenches. Fargo's defensive line has to bring pressure and stuff the run or else QB Marischen will find and exploit mismatches in the secondary. The Sodbusters have been good at negating opposing WR1s and TE Coffey could see an expanded role after last week but I look to RB Harden to really make hay in the passing game to provide relief against DE Bradford and the pass rush. It's not all bad though; the Kodiaks weren't nearly as oppressive on the road. OHI won up front but the rest of the team wasn't good enough to take it over the edge. If QB Mitchem can get the ball out, I like their chances. Fargo picks up a nice win this week against one of the league's best catching a field goal at home: FAR 29-24.

Las Vegas (-1) at Death Valley - Football is a team game. You win as a team and you collapse and throw away a 20 point lead in the fourth quarter against Boise City as a team. Las Vegas was fortunate to have a bye after one of the biggest chokes in the team's history spurred by an injury to All-Star QB McKnight. Backup QB Gonzalez just needed to protect the 27-7 lead but extremely suspect playcalling led to a walk off field goal off an interception with just 16 seconds left in regulation. The announcers couldn't believe it. Fans at the stadium couldn't believe it. I found it all hilarious but also couldn't believe it.

QB McKnight remains questionable on the injury report with a pulled groin and I would be surprised if he played this week. Age aside, you don't mess with groin injuries. That means a full dose of QB Gonzalez. The four year backup is certainly better than he looked against BOI but this team is not going anywhere without QB McKnight. The line is set expecting McKnight to not play, but when it's confirmed I expect DVY to close as a 1 or 2 point favorite.

I'm hoping Death Valley did some soul searching during their week 4 bye. RB Donaldson isn't looking like himself and I really don't want to bet on QB Buckley without some kind of run game to rein in his passing. However, even odds at home against a Rounders team with no QB McKnight has to be a bet. DVY wins this one: 24-17.

As soon as I type that I feel a dumb pick six to kill our ticket coming on...

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GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057