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PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2022 12:41 pm 
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Vegas is still calibrating the lines but let's see if we can squeeze in a couple good bets...

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-5) - This line is an interesting one-- I think the sentiment with the bookies is that QB Reid will play through his groin injury. The Voodoos are in the top half of the league's power ranking and expected to make the playoffs, but a week 1 shellacking has some analysts second guessing their picks. Are New Orleans good to bounce back or is there value betting on the visitors?

The Voodoos drew on a stockpile of picks during this year's draft and a quick glance at their draft class suggests they did well (again). FB Tubbs, the freakishly athletic FB/TE star, LB Benedyk, and TE Madison have already claimed starting spots. WR Tornberg, S Galloway, and QB Torres are also promising rookies from what we've seen in the preseason. With the majority of last year's (young) 9-7 roster returning, one would expect great things out of NOS for years to come. It didn't play out that way in week 1 though. From the jump, QB Logan and San Antonio played fast, aggressive, and dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. RB Wells couldn't get anything going as Stingers swarmed the ball carrier. NOS came away with two interceptions but couldn't get out of their own way-- penalties (12 in total) completely killed any chance at the comeback.

QB Sullivan and the Generals fell to Denver in week 1. Though they put up the yardage we're all accustomed to seeing, halftime adjustments by the Dynomite had PHI spooked. 4 turnovers (2 in the red zone) in the second half by the Generals is a brutal look for a team that is built to outpace and outscore their opponents. PHI has a few rookies making early appearances too: first round pick G Wynne is the biggest name, but RB Sanford and CB Lofton are showing out too.

This game could go either way depending on QB Reid's availability but I think there's a good chance PHI doesn't turn the ball over like that again. While NOS has a bit more talent in their secondary, they don't know the Generals like DEN does. Speaking of familiarity, RB Tatum has to have at least some idea about what looks the Voodoos will be trotting out. How different could the playbook be? PHI should be better equipped this week and I like them to at least cover on the road: 32-28 PHI.

Brooklyn (-12) at Alaska - This is quite the number to be laying on the road against last year's #1 seed but QB Marischen's retirement really shook things up. Several analysts and writers expected the Kodiaks to trade up to draft a quarterback but they opted for OMA backup QB Linquist out of free agency instead. Some other names were reportedly in the mix but it seems they fell through. That being said, the Kodiaks were transitioning to a run heavy team with a stout defense to take pressure off of Jimmy and they look just as good.

Brooklyn missed FB Buckley in the playoffs as they fell to Boston in the first round but most of that roster returns for 2064. They weren't as dominant defensively as they were in the past but caught fire in the second half of the season to squeak into the postseason. The franchise prides itself on its stability and we can probably expect a similar performance as last season. There weren't really any offseason acquisitions outside of the draft but the rookies they did get could see playing time earlier than most. LB Flaherty, CB King and CB Snyder should boost this defense with more experience. During his stay at Penn State, RB Compton was excellent in pass protection and on third downs and is already taking snaps from second year RB Anderson.

BRK isn't typically a team that blows their opponents out of the water. A double digit spread is just too much here, especially against a quality defensive team in Alaska. Brooklyn has a great chance to pick up a quality win if they can bottle RB Harden and force QB Linquist to air the ball out. Expect a low scoring affair that could go either way but ALA's new QB will have to repeat his performance against better competition before I'm on board: Brooklyn make enough plays down the stretch to win 20-17.

Tucson at Baltimore (-4) - Rough scenes for both of these teams. Neither of them had a chance past the first quarter and offseason changes haven't paid off in their openers.

The Bombers acquired quite a few players in the offseason: RB Gmerek and DT McGee from Las Vegas, LB Howe, FB Hudson and RB Ackerman from Boston, and TE Duran from free agency. On paper the team should be much more balanced in terms of talent and depth. Last season, BAL ran the ball reasonably well with RB Humphries and RB Kennedy but Alonzo is a much better player. A true 3 down back and well rounded pass catcher would take a lot of pressure off QB O'Neill who has had a statistically better career since leaving Tucson. It didn't work out that way in week 1 though as receivers struggled to get open against a talented STL secondary. Former first round pick WR Dillon has been particularly disappointing but with WRs Rhodes and Austin getting older, he will have his chances to turn it around. TE Duran wasn't used much in DVY but he possesses that mix of size and strength that few teams will be able to match.

Tucson made a few changes of their own, LB West from KCY and G Lane from STL, but the majority of new faces are rookies. LB Richmond and S Cortez are seeing some starting time along with WR Foster but the core of the team should've been ready to go from day one. Tucson boasts some of the most talented young players at their positions in NT Abdul-Malik, LT Collins, LB Montgomery, and TE Campana but the potential has not translated to wins. The front seven were soundly beaten by the Rounders' offensive line and couldn't really stop the run or pressure QB McKnight. The Toros were inefficient on offense and turned the ball over twice to boot. The offensive plan looked good throughout but defensive miscues by S Malone and a couple of the rookies gave the game away.

I think this week's matchup favors Baltimore and their defensive talents. QB Fryday is a guy that pass rushers usually hate to deal with but the Bombers have had their fair share of practice against QB Ortiz, QB Porto, and QB Joyner. Unless WR Nikolaus gets more involved, TUC's wideouts won't find much room. 4 is a lot of points but the decider for me is Tucson's rookies. BAL doesn't have youngsters out there mucking things up and I'll lay the points with the Bombers: BAL wins 24-17.

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GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057


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