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A 3-0 sweep to start the season always feels good. Hopefully we can keep it rolling...
Baltimore at Shreveport (-1) - This one might be a dud of a game to watch but I think there's some value here. The Bombers played a pretty good game last week against Atlantic City while the Pride got waxed and showed their QB problems are not going away.
BAL's QB O'Neill is having a rough start to the season but the trajectory is looking good. INTs are going down (4 in the first week, then 2, then 1) while offensive production is going up. Two big reasons for this: increased handoffs to RB Gmerek and the emergence of TE Duran as a reliable target. The longtime Arrowhead got lost in the shuffle and spent a couple seasons in Death Valley in pass protection but the Bombers have him running routes and moving the ball downfield. It's a great return to form for one of the best tight ends to ever put on pads. RB Gmerek is finding some footing in his twilight years too-- after averaging 310 carries per season in LVS, the Bombers are happy to split his time with RB Kennedy to keep his legs fresh.
Shreveport is in deep trouble this season. QB Ellison has taken a step back in his second year as a starter and there's no telling when QB Gaines will take his place; it could be now after an abysmal outing at Hartford. Despite investing several high picks, the team's young receivers are doing little to help QB Ellison. If the Pride's defense can create pressure and generate stops, their anemic offense may be able to keep up (as they did against TEN in week 1) but that is a big ask.
There may not be much between these two teams but Shreveport, at the very least, probably shouldn't be favored. Give me a Baltimore win straight up: 24-14.
Las Vegas at Boise City (-1) - These two teams find themselves at 2-1 after week 3 wins but there is, I think, a lot separating them. BOI squeaked by PHI off of a fourth quarter FG and sealed the deal with two late interceptions while LVS gave DVY the business. The way they won says a lot about how they'll win future games.
The Rounders had to shed some big names and big contracts this offseason-- DE Anagnostis, DT McGee, RB Gmerek, LB Harding to name a few-- but it hasn't slowed their production at all. QB McKnight continues to push the ball downfield to WRs McSwain and Vanags while also expanding looks to TEs Mahoney and Holliday. The aerial pressure opens holes for young RBs Alston and Gredzinski and their running game remains credible despite the downgrade. The Rounders may have taken a hit defensively but the talented trio of LB Sawyer, DE Cochrane, and DT Wolfe is well on its way to dominance. Some folks were expecting a down year in LVS after the turnover but I don't think it's happening.
Boise City, after a poor 2063 outing, inexplicably decided to make some win-now moves. Instead of investing in their young talent, they signed several old hands in TE Weikel, WR Jennings, C Lefebvre, G Brock, NT Monty, and LB Jochen. They acquired RB Hancock from Boston, giving up a first round pick and a quality run blocking guard in G Toney, and hamstrung their future drafts. The team appears to be leaning into the retirement home meme with an average roster age of 28.4 with many players on 1 year contracts. The Stampede hasn't impressed me but that experience will be key if they're going to pull off a win this week.
I like the Rounders this week. The Stampede may be able to find success with injuries sidelining C Soltis, LB Hargreaves, CB Leyva and LB Sawyer for LVS but HC Norton and DC Farmer have incorporated the next man up mentality into every facet of this franchise. Las Vegas wins on the road: 33-30.
San Antonio at Durham (-1) - I think there's a theme this week: Road teams that I believe are just better than their opponents catching a point. This final game is a classic case of the public overreacting to the prior week's result.
San Antonio lost to Boston but it was a sloppy game out of the Stingers who turned the ball over 3 times (4 if you count the blocked FG). The Blizzard secondary did a good job of flying around the field mixing up their coverage. QB Logan has been known to be a bit too cavalier with the ball but the risk is usually outweighed by the reward. I expect him to continue slinging the ball against a secondary that has been pretty solid through the early part of the season but running the ball should be emphasized this week. Durham's front seven is very young and they've missed a lot of gaps, particularly against BRK last week.
The Bulldogs picked up their first win of the season with efficient red zone offense and defense. S Tubbs was the hero of the game in my mind, stopping WRs Stewart and Porter one yard short of the first down on two separate red zone visits. The veteran has been outstanding but will need to be even better against the more talented Stingers receivers. It looks like QB Ortiz and RB Ellingsen are finding their stride but I'll need to see a bit more before I trust them again.
Frankly, I don't think Durham will be able to stop San Antonio. They're just too raw on defense to deal with SAO's tricks. They have the ability to match them on offense but SAO's secondary are no pushovers. Give me the Stingers on the road in a high scoring shootout: 36-33.
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GL Division Champions: 2057, 2059, 2065
EFC Champions: 2057
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