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Stretch
 Post subject: NC Playoff Picture
PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:12 pm 
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If I calculated this right (no promises) then here is the playoff picture right now for the National Conference:

[ue61993b]Division Winners[/ue61993b]
[be61993b]12-3 Anchorage[/be61993b]
Has clinched division and 1st round bye.
A win or a Honolulu loss gives home field advantage (HFA) throughout the conference playoffs.

[be61993b]11-4 Honolulu[/be61993b]
Has clinched playoff spot
A win and Anchorage loss gives HFA throughout
A win and Anchorage win gives #2 seed, division win and 1st round bye
A loss and a Santa Cruz win gives #3 seed

[be61993b]10-5 Santa Cruz[/be61993b]
Has clinched playoff spot
A win and Honolulu loss gives #2 seed, division win and 1st round bye
A win and Honolulu win gives #3 seed
A loss and a Denver win gives #4 seed

[be61993b]9-6 Denver[/be61993b]
Has clinched division
A win and Santa Cruz loss gives #3 seed
Otherwise, #4 seed

[ue61993b]Wild Card Hopefuls[/ue61993b]
[be61993b]10-5 Tucson[/be61993b]
Has clinched playoff berth as #5 seed

[be61993b]8-7 Sacramento[/be61993b]
A win results in playoff berth

[be61993b]8-7 Long Beach[/be61993b]
A win and a Seattle loss results in a playoff berth

[be61993b]8-7 Seattle[/be61993b]
A win and loss by Sacramento results in a playoff berth

[be61993b]8-7 Las Vegas[/be61993b]
Same record as the others but loses tiebreakers to both Sacramento and Long Beach.

Note: Sacramento and Long Beach play each other this week.

I THINK this is right but don't hunt me down with torches and pitchforks if this isn't accurate.

American Conference to come later.

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Fonzie
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:37 pm 
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[quote89e7e2d="Stretch"][b89e7e2d]10-5 Tucson[/b89e7e2d]
Has clinched playoff berth as #5 seed[/quote89e7e2d]

I'm not sure about this, but we might win the division if we beat Honolulu. At least, that's what I'm assuming since the game hasn't marked Honolulu as having clinched the division.

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Stretch
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 3:48 pm 
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[quote58f729e="Fonzie"][quote58f729e="Stretch"][b58f729e]10-5 Tucson[/b58f729e]
Has clinched playoff berth as #5 seed[/quote58f729e]

I'm not sure about this, but we might win the division if we beat Honolulu. At least, that's what I'm assuming since the game hasn't marked Honolulu as having clinched the division.[/quote58f729e]

Honolulu has a 1-0 advantage in head-to-head competition but you two play this week.

Even if Tucson wins, their records will be tied. Head-to-head you would have split so it goes to the next tiebreak which is common opponents.

I think Honolulu has the advantage in common games. You both have played Arizona, Anchorage, Oregon, Seattle, Las Vegas, New Orleans and Shreveport. Honolulu is 7-3 in those games and Tucson is 6-4.

Again, I could be wrong and if so...well...shoot me. :)

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Fonzie
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 5:47 pm 
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I agree that's the way it should play out - but I'm curious as to why the game engine hasn't marked Honolulu as champs yet? Hmmm...

This is actually a somewhat important question for me, as I'll rest my injured players if there's no chance of winning the division. But if there's a chance...

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Fonzie
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 5:56 pm 
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[quote20b9f90="Stretch"]I think Honolulu has the advantage in common games. You both have played Arizona, Anchorage, Oregon, Seattle, Las Vegas, New Orleans and Shreveport. Honolulu is 7-3 in those games and Tucson is 6-4.

Again, I could be wrong and if so...well...shoot me. :)[/quote20b9f90]

We both played Memphis and San Antonio as well. Still, Honolulu ends up being 9-3 and Tucson 8-4.

Very confusing.

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Stretch
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:04 pm 
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My guess is that the engine just looks at record and head-to-head until the actual end of the season.

The AC playoff picture will have to wait until tomorrow. It's just plain evil.

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timmynausea
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 5:04 am 
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[quote5c2858c="Fonzie"][quote5c2858c="Stretch"]I think Honolulu has the advantage in common games. You both have played Arizona, Anchorage, Oregon, Seattle, Las Vegas, New Orleans and Shreveport. Honolulu is 7-3 in those games and Tucson is 6-4.

Again, I could be wrong and if so...well...shoot me. :)[/quote5c2858c]

We both played Memphis and San Antonio as well. Still, Honolulu ends up being 9-3 and Tucson 8-4.

Very confusing.[/quote5c2858c]

You guys both played Boise, too. I guess we're easy to overlook this year. I came up with the same 9-3 to 8-4 so you must've counted our games but not mentioned them?
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Fonzie
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:41 am 
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[quotec4943f2="timmynausea"]You guys both played Boise, too. I guess we're easy to overlook this year. I came up with the same 9-3 to 8-4 so you must've counted our games but not mentioned them?[/quotec4943f2]

Yep - I counted you but forgot to mention it. My bad. :oops:

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Stretch
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:47 am 
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You're right. I missed those last few.

The AC playoff picture is INSANE. I might not do that one or my head will explode.

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Joe
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 11:58 am 
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Santa Cruz has already won the division. I think you missed that one.


Oh yeah, and you can take out Sac from the playoff picture. We will lose our 7th straight game and complete a 2nd half collapse, missing the playoffs.
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MIJB#19
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:39 pm 
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Playoff picture math wizard reporting for duty.

(Wow, Long Beach in the playoff hunt, that's a very good reason to help y'all out!)

Let me grab the league files and giver y'all whatever I can figure out for y'all in the next 30 mins.
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3ric
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:47 pm 
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Appreciate the help, Matthijs... I'd like to know what ever slim chance I do have left to make the playoffs...

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MIJB#19
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:53 pm 
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wow, the AC is messy...
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MIJB#19
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 2:20 pm 
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Here are potential tied situations and who will win the situations:

For #2 seed
11-5 New Orleans vs Charleston vs Detroit *1
11-5 [bcb39245]New Orleans[/bcb39245] vs Charleston
11-5 New Orleans vs [bcb39245]Detroit[/bcb39245]

For #3 seed
11-5 Charleston vs [bcb39245]Detroit[/bcb39245]
10-5-1 Charleston vs [bcb39245]Detroit[/bcb39245]
10-6 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Durham

For AC South Win
10-6 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Detroit vs Albany
10-6 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Detroit

For AC South 2nd place
10-6 Detroit vs [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Albany
9-7 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Albany

For AC East Win
10-6 Charleston vs [bcb39245]Durham[/bcb39245]

For #5 seed
10-6 Detroit vs Charleston vs New York *2
10-6 Detroit vs Durham vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
10-6 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Charleston vs New York
10-6 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Durham vs New York
10-6 [bcb39245]Detroit[/bcb39245] vs Charleston
10-6 [bcb39245]Detroit[/bcb39245] vs Durham
10-6 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Charleston
10-6 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Durham
10-6 Charleston vs New York *3
10-6 Durham vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
10-6 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs New York
10-6 Detroit vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Durham vs New York
9-6-1 Cleveland vs [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245] vs New York
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Durham vs New York
9-6-1 Albany vs [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245] vs New York
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Durham
9-6-1 Cleveland vs [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Durham
9-6-1 Albany vs [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 Durham vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245] vs New York

For #6 seed
10-6 Detroit vs Charleston vs New York *2
10-6 Detroit vs Durham vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
10-6 [bcb39245]Detroit[/bcb39245] vs Charleston
10-6 [bcb39245]Detroit[/bcb39245] vs Durham
10-6 Charleston vs New York *3
10-6 Durham vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
10-6 Detroit vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Durham vs New York
9-6-1 Albany vs [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245] vs New York
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Durham
9-6-1 Cleveland vs [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 Cleveland vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Durham
9-6-1 Albany vs [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs New York
9-6-1 Durham vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]
9-6-1 [bcb39245]Baltimore[/bcb39245] vs New York
9-7 [bcb39245]Cleveland[/bcb39245] vs Durham vs New York
9-7 Cleveland vs [bcb39245]Baltimore (8-6-2)[/bcb39245] vs New York
9-7 [bcb39245]Albany[/bcb39245] vs Durham vs New York
9-7 Albany vs [bcb39245]Baltimore (8-6-2)[/bcb39245] vs New York
9-7 Cleveland vs [bcb39245]New York[/bcb39245]

*1 Strenght of victory; New Orleans has a 6.5 lead over Detroit, Charleston would lose out
*2 Strenght of victory; Charleston has a 0.5 lead over New York and 3.5 lead over Detroit
*3 Strenght of victory; Charleston has a 0.5 lead over New York
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MIJB#19
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:12 pm 
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(I hope this is all correct!)

*A added on Sunday around 2h25 pm EST

Hartford
#1 win/tie/loss

New Orleans
#2 win/tie
#2 Detroit tie/loss
#3 loss & Detroit win
#2/3 loss & Detroit win & Charleston win -> sov vs Detroit

Detroit
#2 win & New Orleans loss
#2/3 loss & Detroit win & Charleston win -> sov vs New Orleans
#3 win & New Orleans win/tie
#3 tie & Charleston tie/loss
#4 tie & Charleston win
#5 loss & Albany tie/loss & Charleston win/tie & Durham tie/loss & New York tie/loss
#5/x/x loss & Albany tie/loss & Charleston loss & Durham win & New York win -> sov vs Charleston & New York
#5 loss & Albany tie/loss & Charleston loss & Durham tie/loss & New York tie/loss
#5 loss & Albany tie/loss & Charleston win/tie & Durham win & New York tie/loss
#6/x/x loss & Albany win & Charleston loss & Durham win & New York win -> sov vs Charleston & New York
#6 loss & Albany win & Durham win & New York tie/loss
#6 loss & Albany tie/loss & Durham win & New York wins & New York holds Detroit/Charlston/New York tie breaker

Charleston
#3 win & Detroit tie/loss
#3 tie & Detroit loss
#4 win & Detroit win
#4 tie & Detroit win/tie
#5 loss & Detroit win/tie & Albany tie/loss & Durham tie/loss & New York tie/loss
#5/x/x loss & Detroit loss & Albany tie/loss & Durham win & New York win -> sov vs Detroit & New York
#5/x loss & Detroit win/tie & Albany tie/loss & Durham tie/loss & New York win -> sov vs New York
#6/x/x loss & Detroit loss & Albany win & Durham win & New York win -> sov vs Detroit & New York
#6/x/x loss & Detroit loss & Albany tie/loss & Durham win & New York win & Detroit holds Detroit/Charleston/New York tie-breaker -> sov vs New York
#6/x/x loss & Detroit win/tie & Albany win & Durham win & New York win -> sov vs New York
#6 loss & Detroit loss & Albany tie/loss & Durham tie/loss & New York tie/loss *A
#6 loss & Detroit win/tie & Albany win & Durham tie/loss & New York tie/loss *A

Cleveland
#3 win & Durham win & Charleston loss
#4 win & Charleston win/tie
#4 win & Charleston loss & Durham tie/loss
#5 tie & Albany tie/loss & Durham tie & New York tie/loss
#6 tie & Albany loss & Durham win & New York loss
#6 tie & Albany win & Durham tie & New York loss
#6 tie & Albany loss & Durham tie & New York win
#6 tie & Albany tie & Durham tie & New York win
#6 loss & Albany loss & Baltimore win & New York loss

Durham
#4 win & Charleston loss
#5 win & Charleston win/tie & Cleveland tie/loss & Albany tie/loss & New York tie/loss *A
#5 tie & Detroit win & Albany loss & New York loss
#6 win & Charleston win/tie & Cleveland win & Albany tie/loss & New York tie/loss *A
#6 win & Charleston win/tie & Cleveland tie/loss & Albany win & New York tie/loss *A
#6 win & Charleston win/tie & Cleveland tie/loss & Albany tie/loss & New York win *A
#6 tie & Detroit win & Albany win/tie & New York loss
#6 tie & Detroit win & Albany loss & New York win/tie
#6 tie & Detroit loss & Albany loss & New York loss

New York
#5 win & Detroit win/tie & Albany tie/loss & Charleston win/tie & Durham tie/loss
#5 win & Detroit loss & Albany tie/loss & Charleston win/tie
#5/x/x win & Detroit loss & Albany tie/loss & Charleston loss & Durham win -> sov vs Detroit & Charleston
#5/x win & Detroit win/tie & Albany tie/loss & Durham tie/loss & Charleston loss -> sov vs Charleston
#5 win & Detroit win/tie * Albany tie/loss & Durham win & Charleston loss
#5 tie & Cleveland loss & Albany loss & Durham tie
#6/x/x win & Detroit loss & Albany win & Charleston loss & Durham win -> sov vs Detroit & Charleston
#6 win & Detroit loss & Albany win & Durham win & Charleston win/tie
#6/x/x win & Detroit loss & Albany tie/loss & Charleston loss & Durham win & Detroit holds Detroit/Charleston/New York tie-breaker -> sov vs Charleston
#6/x/x win & Detroit win/tie & Albany win & Charleston loss & Durham win -> sov vs Charleston
#6 win & Detroit win/tie & Albany win & Durham win & Charleston win/tie
#6 win & Cleveland tie/loss & Albany win & Durham loss/tie
#6 tie & Cleveland tie & Albany loss & Durham win
#6 tie & Cleveland loss & Albany loss & Durham tie
#6 loss & Cleveland loss & Albany loss & Baltimore loss

Albany
#5 win
#5 tie & Cleveland loss & Durham tie/loss & New York tie/loss
#6 tie & Detroit win & Durham win & New York loss
#6 tie & Cleveland win & Durham tie/loss & New York tie/loss


Baltimore
#5 win & Cleveland tie & Albany tie/loss & New York loss
#5 win & Albany loss & New York loss
#5 win & Cleveland tie/loss & Albany loss & New York tie/loss
#6 win & Detroit win & Albany win & New York loss
#6 win & Detroit win & Albany loss & New York win
#6 win & Detroit loss & Albany tie/loss & New York tie/loss
#6 win & Cleveland tie & Albany tie/loss & New York win
#6 tie & Cleveland loss & Albany win & New York loss
#6 tie & Cleveland tie/win & Albany loss & New York loss
#6 tie & Cleveland loss & Albany loss & New York win/tie


Last edited by MIJB#19 on Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

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MIJB#19
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:28 pm 
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For #1 seed
12-4 Anchorage vs [b7995531]Honolulu[/b7995531]

For #2 seed
11-5 Honolulu vs [b7995531]Santa Cruz[/b7995531]

For #3 seed
10-6 Santa Cruz vs [b7995531]Denver[/b7995531]

For NC West
11-5 [b7995531]Honolulu[/b7995531] vs Tucson

For NC North 2nd place
8-7-1 [b7995531]Sacramento[/b7995531] vs Long Beach
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MIJB#19
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:29 pm 
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Anchorage
#1 win/tie
#1 loss & Honolulu tie/loss
#2 loss & Honolulu win

Honolulu
#1 win & Anchorage loss
#2 win & Anchorage tie/loss
#2 tie
#2 loss & Santa Cruz tie/loss

Santa Cruz
#2 win & Honolulu loss
#3 win & Honolulu win/tie
#3 tie
#3 loss & Denver tie/loss
#4 loss & Denver win

Denver
#3 win & Santa Cruz loss
#4 win & Santa Cruz tie/loss
#4 tie/loss

Tucson
#5 win/tie/loss

Sacramento
#6 win
#6 tie & Seattle tie/loss & Las Vegas tie/loss

Long Beach
#6 win

Seattle
#6 win & Sacramento tie & Las Vegas tie/loss

Las Vegas
#6 win & Sacramento tie
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MIJB#19
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:33 pm 
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[quote0d0d38d="Fonzie"][quote0d0d38d="Stretch"][b0d0d38d]10-5 Tucson[/b0d0d38d]
Has clinched playoff berth as #5 seed[/quote0d0d38d]

I'm not sure about this, but we might win the division if we beat Honolulu. At least, that's what I'm assuming since the game hasn't marked Honolulu as having clinched the division.[/quote0d0d38d]Honolulu has clinched the division on common games record.

The NC situation was very easy afterall, less than 10 minutes to figure it all out. The AC took me over two full hours.
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MIJB#19
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:36 pm 
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[quote2c48af7="Stretch"][u2c48af7]Wild Card Hopefuls[/u2c48af7]
[b2c48af7]8-7 Long Beach[/b2c48af7]
A win and a Seattle loss results in a playoff berth

[b2c48af7]8-7 Seattle[/b2c48af7]
A win and loss by Sacramento results in a playoff berth

[b2c48af7]8-7 Las Vegas[/b2c48af7]
Same record as the others but loses tiebreakers to both Sacramento and Long Beach.

Note: Sacramento and Long Beach play each other this week. [/quote2c48af7]I think Long Beach holds the tie-breakers over Seattle on conference record, meaning Long Beach is in with a win. Which also means either Seattle and Las Vegas need a Sacramento-Long Beach tie to have a shot at the last wild card.
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TLK
 Post subject: Re: NC Playoff Pictu
PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:36 pm 
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[quote555bb37="MIJB#19"]
The NC situation was very easy afterall, less than 10 minutes to figure it all out. The AC took me over two full hours.[/quote555bb37]

Beautiful work... thanks.
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MIJB#19
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 4:37 pm 
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BTW, I hope I'm not stepping on your toes Stretch for doing this for y'all. :)
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Taco
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 30, 2005 6:56 pm 
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Great work, MIJB! It looks like my best shot to make the playoffs is to win the division with a win and a Charleston loss. I never thought I'd be rooting for Tampa Bay, but I could really use a Tampa victory this week!

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Fonzie
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Wow. Thanks for your hard work MIJB (and Stretch!).

Bummer that my fears have been confirmed, though. Honolulu has the division locked up, despite the game engine's refusal to acknowledge it (which I find weird).

Looks like the rookies are going to get some playing time this week. :(

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MrBug708
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2005 12:29 am 
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Dont play mind games with me. I know you'd love nothing MORE then beating my ass in my place and sending me into the playoffs with a loss.

But you play your rookies :wink:

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Fonzie
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Location: Tucson Toros
[quoted625c9f="MrBug708"]Dont play mind games with me. I know you'd love nothing MORE then beating my ass in my place and sending me into the playoffs with a loss.

But you play your rookies :wink:[/quoted625c9f]

Sorry Bug, no mind games this time. If we beat you at home it'll be because the rookies played well.

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Ring of Fire Division Champions - 2009, 2011-2026, 2028-33
Western Conference Champions - 2011-2013, 2016, 2017, 2019-2022, 2024, 2025, 2028, 2033
CFL Champions - 2011, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2025
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