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2062 Betting Preview - Week 14

1 comment

Tue Nov 16 10:13 AM

Two perfect weeks in a row and we're BACK baby! 22-17 is solid for this point in the season! DEN stays alive with a win over ORE with the game ball going to DE Sapia (who was questionable to even play!) and the defense. Good progress from QB Dole but... well, not the best competition. QB Fryday and the Voodoos reconciled quickly and got back to winning ways. WR McCreadie's integration into the team still needs work but it's looking better. And Boston... my god, if they make it into the postseason this is a team to watch. 538 simulations have their chances at around 10% though so...

Onward to more teams fighting to keep their dreams alive:

Texas at Omaha (-18) - 2-4 fading TEX... can't blame TUC there for wanting to lose. I know the players weren't trying to lose but it was definitely in the best interests of the franchise to come away with a higher pick. This 18 point spread is gross and I'm not confident that Omaha covers in 60 minutes. I'm thinking they go up 18 points in the first half, start resting starters, and maybe TEX comes in through the back door. Still... I don't want to back QB Marsh at all so let's go Arrowheads: OMA wins 36-7.

Atlanta at Baltimore (-3) - After dropping a goose egg at Detroit last week, spirits in the Bombers camp have to be low. QB O'Neill was surprisingly careful with the ball, but receivers weren't able to break tackles when they got the ball. It really is up to the defense to do everything for Baltimore.

Atlanta snapped a two game skid with a tidy fourth quarter comeback against the Rounders. The game's complexion changed dramatically after CB Alworth stood RB Gmerek up, causing a fumble, and DROY LB Hargreaves left the game with an ankle injury. QB Clements played his most efficient game of the season and the defense tightened up just enough. It's encouraging for a team deep in the wildcard race.

Unfortunately, the matchup is a rough one for ATL. BAL's defense is well suited to stop anything the Firebirds can throw on offense. On the other side, ATL's defensive line should struggle against a heavy dose of RB Humphries, an athletic do-it-all back similar to RBs Perkins, Ellingsen, and Harden. All that said, I can't side with the Bombers this week. They should've beaten Detroit last week and the hit to morale after the loss has to be factored in. ATL wins 20-17.

Denver at Kansas City (-7) - The Storm are peaking right on time-- 7 wins (some against excellent competition!) in a row brings them to the top of the Great Lakes division. The remaining schedule appears pretty straight forward but DEN and MIA could pose some danger.

You would think the Storm's abandonment of the run would make them a bit easier to stop but that hasn't been the case. The team's cadre of talented of receivers mean that there's always someone open and double-teaming anyone is an exercise in futility. RB Mansour and FB Jordan are also dangerous targets in their own right and most defenses simply don't have the personnel that can cover everyone. Their strategy is to outpace and outscore opponents and it's hard to argue with the results. Through 12 games, KCY has scored in every single first quarter.

Denver needs to slow things down and limit KCY's opportunities. They should be able to do that with RBs like Eagleton and Duran and a loaded defensive line, but they need to rein QB Dole in first. It can be good to let the rookie loose and learn from his mistakes but they have a chance at the playoffs.

The public is favoring KCY heavily this week. They've taken some big name scalps these last few weeks and if DEN's pass rush doesn't find the mark this week, this aging secondary will struggle to keep up with the Storm's burners. Their showing against ORE gives me some hope that they haven't quit on the season just yet, though. I'll take the points with the Dynomite: KCY wins 33-27.

Shreveport at Boise City (-4) - After the great starts both of these teams had, I would not have expected either to be on the playoff bubble. BOI's excuse is that they've had to rely on a backup QB, but SHR doesn't really have an excuse. Two of the teams in their division are still full-swing rebuilding and the third is collapsing prior to the rebuild. Is the sun really setting on the Pride or is there value on the road dog?

We'll start with breaking down BOI's last game and recent form. The Stampede went with QB Allen, finally back from concussion protocol, and it looked great-- for three quarters. The veteran threw 2 costly interceptions (one pick six) in the fourth quarter and pretty much punted the game away. BOI still looked like a contender otherwise and it will be interesting to see who they roll with for the rest of the season. QB Fitzgerald wasn't doing THAT badly to be benched but QB Allen may be enough better at this point.

The Pride was never expected to go into Durham and win-- the snowstorm made sure of that-- but SHR made it close after going down 0-13. The offense generated good yardage but the Bulldogs red zone defense was stout and points were elusive. Durham's defense made a couple key plays that resulted in SHR's uncharacteristically poor third down conversion rate. From an outsider's perspective, QB Scott is taking on too much of the offensive load. I'd like to see RB Zhang out of the doghouse and pounding the rock.

I can see why the line favors BOI after reviewing recent games. The Stampede looks much better after the BYE and seems to have the right idea offensively, individual mistakes aside. The Pride continues to tinker in search of their early season success and I think they aren't too far off... but they need to win now. GM Raven Hawk knows what's at stake and should be able to corral a win against a team that still needs to decide who their starting QB will be. SHR wins 24-20 behind a big game from RB Zhang.

Texas upset confirmed via the Zenzog prediction curse

by hbcook86 at Wed Nov 17, 2021 08:43 PM

Atlantic City


Mon Nov 15 01:32 PM

Good afternoon all. I took over the Phantoms and they look to be a challenge which I like. Based on what I see the QB situation is XFL quality and there really are only a couple difference makers on defense. Everybody will be available come the offseason as this team needs a rebuild.

looks like they are the 2nd to worst team by overall win history in the league so literally there is only one team historically beneath them so the sky is up!

At least the cap situation is ok and the draft picks are still in my possession. Looking forward to losing to quite a few of you while we get this figured out.

Good luck and have fun with this rebuild, if you need anything feel free to ask. I'm here to help.

by JJ Smitty at Mon Nov 15, 2021 02:27 PM

Good luck! Don't forget to get into the Discord chat rooms too. That's where all the fun and drama is.

by Cheesehead Craig at Mon Nov 15, 2021 02:51 PM


by zenzog at Mon Nov 15, 2021 03:22 PM

Welcome to the Yankee Division. Just posted how Atlantic City has the third oldest stadium. Here's to hoping you put some money into it because it is not in great shape but has potential.

by Dean Gullberry at Mon Nov 15, 2021 04:43 PM

Good luck and welcome to the CFL.

As Craig said, see you on Discord...

by Ternvig at Tue Nov 16, 2021 12:30 AM

I got on discord. I also got the first game done under this new regime and my best player (Magnum) tears his patellar tendon and is out 56 weeks.......which we basically know he will come back a shell of his former self.

Not the best start but the ship will be righted and next man up.

by jamesumd1 at Tue Nov 16, 2021 07:17 AM

welcome to the league

by FlexD at Tue Nov 16, 2021 07:49 AM

Oldest Stadiums in the CFL


Dean Gullberry
Fri Nov 12 02:15 PM

1. Tucson
Built: 1961
Stadium Type: Outdoor/Natural Grass
Capacity: 99.900
Stadium Condition: Excellent
Turf Condition: Very Good
Parking Condition: Excellent
Analysis: The most iconic stadium in the CFL.

2. Boston
Built: 1967
Stadium Type: Outdoor/Natural Grass
Capacity: 99.900
Stadium Condition: Excellent
Turf Condition: Very Good
Parking Condition: Average
Analysis: Another iconic stadium, but does not have the banners waving in the wind like Tuscon.

3. Atlantic City
Built: 1972
Stadium Type: Outdoor/Natural Grass
Capacity: 79.400
Stadium Condition: Poor
Turf Condition: Poor
Parking Condition: Average
Analysis: Dilapidated condition and needs a desperate upgrade.

Aside from Dean Gullberry: Speaking from a team that has to play there once a year, Brooklyn would love to see the stadium upgraded and stay in Atlantic City keeping an outdoor stadium like the other Yankee division stadiums. Brawler fans still joke that it is cheaper to take the 30 minute train ride to Atlantic City than seeing the game in Brooklyn (although they still don't, but it would be fun if they did...at least more attendance for the Phantoms).

4. Durham
Built: 1973
Stadium Type: Outdoor/Natural Grass
Capacity: 78.000
Stadium Condition: Excellent
Turf Condition: Very Good
Parking Condition: Good
Analysis: Another iconic stadium and does have their fair share of banners blowing in the wind.

5. Boise
Built: 1992
Stadium Type: Dome/Artificial turf
Capacity: 71.500
Stadium Condition: Excellent
Turf Condition: Very Good
Parking Condition: Average
Analysis: The first dome stadium built in the CFL that has not been replaced and still has artificial turf. Like Durham and Atlantic City they have room to grow. This was an era before the Retractable-Roof was all the buzz.

Honorable Mention:
Oregon: 1996
San Antonio:1997
New Orleans: 1998
Ohio: 1999

Most Iconic Stadiums would be fun but how do you judge that?

Awesome post Dean, it's great to look back at the most iconic stadiums around the league.

by JJ Smitty at Sun Nov 14, 2021 05:06 PM

The Vampires are trying to build a new stadium but public support is low... :evil:

by zenzog at Wed Nov 17, 2021 01:09 PM

*Something funny about Appleton and stadiums*

by Ternvig at Thu Nov 18, 2021 07:48 AM

2062 Betting Preview - Week 13


Thu Nov 11 09:51 AM

Somehow we pulled out a 3-0 week and go to 19-17 and back into profit-town. BAL leaned heavily on RB Humphries-- who looks like a very solid workhorse-- while DVY abandoned their strength and were punished with 3 missed FGs. The Bombers have a terrifying secondary if they want to get the clamps. HAR took care of business. MIA came out of the gates guns blazing and got to a double digit lead before the anemic DET even got a whiff of the promised land. QB DiCosomo has looked quite poor in the last two weeks and we finally saw him hit the bench. The Talons may have exposed the Vampires as the fraudulent 8 win team they are.

Onward to the meat and potatoes of the season...

Tucson (-4) at Texas - 2-3 fading TEX... Alright maybe we stop fading this Inferno team with these horrible double digit spreads. Teams aren't really trying very hard against them and it's leading to weird shenanigans and backdoor covers. This is a tough line-- almost nobody is betting TUC here because well... they're both bad. The line is holding pretty steady at -4 though so the sharps must be seeing something here. Gotta stick to fading TEX as they race to that delicious 0-16: TUC wins on the road 24-10.

Denver (-3) at Oregon - Denver losing to IWC was somewhat unexpected but QB Dole's mistakes have cost them plenty this season. There are some good pieces on this Dynomite squad but the only way they come back competent next season is if they get right with their defense. All-star level guys like S Asavamonchai, DT Wortham, and DE Branch are posting great numbers but the defense as a whole is pretty bad. It looks like a lot of selfish football.

The Bandits were gifted a win as QB Fryday was suspended by the New Orleans for "conduct detrimental to the team." I'll speculate on that a little bit later. Rookie QB Reid looked supremely nervous and clearly isn't ready to carry a CFL team by himself and RB Tatum should've gotten more touches. Rookie QB Harvey has picked up 2 wins but realistically, ORE is a team devoid of talent and waiting for the off-season where they have two first round picks. They won't be seeing a top 3 pick at this rate but #4 is still an excellent place to be if they want it.

DEN is just 3 games back from a wildcard spot and could well make it if they win the next few games. I can't say exactly what this front office is planning to do but if they want to stay alive they have to win here. If not, well... then we know that DEN is tanking and that'll inform our bets down the road. The Dynomite win this and cover as Oregon plays catchup with HON and OHI: DEN 22-13.

New Orleans at St. Louis (-10) - One of the biggest stories of week 12 was the suspension of CFL champion QB Fryday by the Voodoos for "conduct detrimental to the team." It was clear that Fryday wasn't happy with the team's 3 game skid and he said as much in the postgame interviews after week 10. "The receivers were running routes not exactly where I thought they were going to be at," he told reporters. "The offensive line, they were good sometimes, and sometimes they let guys through."

Sources close to the team said that the quarterback then took a private jet to Las Vegas and did not return for team practice on Wednesday during the BYE week. He is back in New Orleans now but the team has not said whether or not his suspension would continue. Drama aside, the Voodoos have significant talent on their roster. WR McCreadie hasn't slotted in quite as well as they would like but DE Richey and SS Gibb are making plays. With SAO and SHR picking up losses, the Voodoos are in a good position to take the division if the coaches can get everything back on track.

STL played a lazy game last week against TEX but the body of work is there. A tough defense, bruising runners that wear opponents down, and a QB that has just three interceptions (tied for best in the league). They probably won't win the division but it's still a great place to be.

This -10 line seems a bit high for me and there aren't many books with betting enabled this early in the week. Most are waiting to see if QB Fryday will sit this week as the gap between him and QB Reid is massive. I think he'll play so I'm going to take the +10 with NOS-- my models have this game at -14 if he doesn't, -6 if he does. The Voodoos may not win but they should cover: STL 26-21.

Iowa City at Boston (-7) - After a tough front 8, Boston is enjoying one of the weaker back 8 schedules in the league. ACI, HON, TUC, LAS, IWC should all be wins for the Blizzard and weeks 11 and 12 are already in the books. QB Klingbiel and RB Hancock have been padding their stats and look, on paper, like the best duo in the league. This week's match against IWC should be another "name your own score" adventure given the gap in talent.

With 5 games left against opponents they simply aren't favored to beat, IWC is headed for another poor finish. Recent drafts have yielded several exciting talents but they need time to develop. CB Kelly, RG Grier, and LB Francois look to be premier talents with the latter showing flashes of true greatness. DT Hanks and WR Pittard, last year's picks, are solid contributors with more growth expected. 2063 is looking like when everything will truly be online for the Argonauts but they have to make it without any serious injuries.

It's hard to argue with the level Boston is at this season. They are going toe to toe with the top teams in the CFL and completely blowing past the lesser squads. There is some danger here for BOS-- despite mixed results, IWC has one of the most talented defensive fronts. S Richardson and this secondary are also one of the better tackling units in the league, limiting YAC opportunities. The aforementioned WR Pittard also has seen target share rise and the Blizzard will need to keep him in check (this shouldn't be too hard since he has a limited route tree). It might be bumpy but I see a game that BOS breaks wide open in the 4th quarter: BOS 30-14.

2062 Betting Preview - Week 12

1 comment

Tue Nov 09 09:41 AM

Another week in the money takes us to 16-17. DVY stays alive behind a surprisingly efficient day from QB Buckley. The two interceptions on their side of the field only turned into 6 points thanks to a suffocating defensive effort from, well, everyone on the roster. STL pulled out the upset as DUR continues to struggle without WR Hindman. Not too worried about their chances in the postseason but now we're looking at a world without the Bulldogs in the playoffs.

Then there's Shreveport... still haven't watched the tape on this one but the box score is pretty damning. SAO converted 9/12 3rd downs, committed just a single penalty, and played a very clean game overall. Two fumbles (one on a punt return, the other in SHR territory) kept this game from being an even bigger blowout. Even if this team sputters out in the next 6 games, SAO is a team to watch next year.

Moving swiftly on...

Texas at St. Louis (-14) - 2-2 fading TEX... the Privateers apparently wanted to give TEX a handicap and let the Inferno go up 20-0 before suiting up. In the end we were a missed FG away from covering the -12 but they were obviously the right side the whole time. These double digit spreads are a little sketchy but STL should win easily. This is another let-down spot after the huge emotional win against DUR but this TEX squad is up there with the 2059 TUC team as one of the worst in history. STL wins and covers: 36-14.

Baltimore (-3) at Death Valley - It feels like I feature BAL a bunch in my betting columns so I'll make this quick. The analytics love the Bombers but they just aren't winning. I don't know what it is about this team but you can see that there is potential that simply isn't being realized.

BAL shut down OMA pretty handily this last week as a 2 point home dog-- WRs Dole and Stone combined for 3 catches on 7 targets for 36 yards while RBs Ashworth and Johnstone averaged 2.38 ypc if you exclude the 54yd scamper in the 4th quarter. It was a fantastic performance overall by any metric except the offense was absolutely putrid. A little bit of Tucson came out today as O'Neill posted a 29.4 QBR. They'll need to be significantly better this week to keep their hopes alive. My model has them at 0.4% to make the postseason and it starts with this win.

The Copperheads, meanwhile, played possibly their best game of the season. Despite QB Buckley's two INTs, DVY looked like a vastly better team and was in full control wire to wire. A WC spot is well within reach if they can keep turnovers to a minimum and tighten up their penalties. A small shoutout here to WR Porter-- this dude is on another level when it comes to taking the tops off of defenses but QB Buckley just couldn't get the ball out to him before. Very scary now if it keeps up.

At the risk of betraying the analytics gods... I'm going to side with BAL here. DVY is a popular public dog catching 3 points at home, which is never good, and BAL still has something to play for. The matchup seems good-- the Bombers secondary can smother just about any receiving corps in the league-- and they've shown the ability to slow competent rushing offenses in OMA, DUR, SCU, and STL. Hey on the plus side if BAL doesn't win, they're out of the playoff hunt and we won't have to bet on them again. BAL wins and covers: 27-21.

Tucson at Hartford (-7) - TUC at 3-7 is somehow not mathematically eliminated from the playoff hunt... and the players seem to be giving it a decent go. They led the Outlaws 31-21 into the 4th quarter but gave up the ghost in a ridiculous sequence from QB Bailey after the two minute warning. That being said, I think Toros management understands that this is not their year and they need to protect their draft pick. New GM Teutoberg did need to see how his starters played but I think he's seen enough.

HAR could use a pick-me-up after losing two in a row to OMA and BRK. Last week's loss is particularly heartbreaking as they led 16-6 but gave up a handful of crucial plays to let the Brawlers back into the game. 3 defensive penalties in the final drive of regulation is completely unacceptable. Still, they're a potent team just one game behind the rest of the WC teams and shouldn't have any trouble navigating the win against the Toros.

Matchups will be fluid in this game as I expect Tucson to be experimenting with lineups and schemes but Hartford simply outclasses their opponent this week. I'll lay the 7 points with the home team: HAR wins 30-13.

Miami at Detroit (-5) - The 8 game streak comes to an end for the Vampires this week but they were bound to run out of steam after 3 games on the road. DET will play 5 of their remaining 6 games at La-Z-Boy stadium and are expected by many to lock up a playoff spot. However, MIA is desperate for wins in a division that is still up for grabs which spells danger for both teams.

It's tough to say what exactly went wrong for MIA last week against DEN. Despite the sprained knee, QB Dole started the game well, going 5/5 for 47 yards and a TD. He was pulled seemingly out of an abundance of caution and the veteran QB Woodard finished out the game. MIA should've handled their business up 24-7 in the middle of the 3rd quarter but a fumble on their side of the field completely flipped the script and we would see one of the biggest meltdowns of the season. The Dynomite tightened up and allowed just one sack on QB Woodard after that. Three drivers later and we find ourselves in OT with momentum firmly on DEN's side. A third fumble by TE Ziel in OT would "seal" the deal.

Detroit played a much closer game with Kansas City and nearly completed the comeback. OC Cockburn came out with a very different gameplan to start this match as QB DiCosomo threw the ball aggressively early and often. After one quarter of success, DET's passing attack would see little more until the final minutes of the game where an offensive holding penalty at the KCY05 would kill their drive. DC Engleberger also threw some new aggressive looks at KCY and held QB Grueneich to a poor 46.1% completion rate but the Storm managed to find the yardage and points to come out on top.

The Vampires have been a revelation on defense this season, posting extremely good metrics against decent competition, but the offense continues to struggle. RB Burton looks to be the best player but struggles with fitness and conditioning. Everyone else looks mediocre out there though WR Von Wyss is an absolute menace with the ball in his hands. They will need to step up against a fairly skilled opponent.

Miami's star DE Nichols continues to miss games due to the concussion protocol but it doesn't seem to be affecting their excellent pass rush. Consistency issues and ball protection plague the roster though-- one week they'll beat FAR and LVS, the next they'll lose to HON and TUC. They play up (and down) to their opponents and it's no recipe for success. That being said, their losses are close and wins are even closer so I have to take the points with the Talons: DET wins but does not cover 17-14.

Losing to KCY is a must for most Bowl-bound teams. :-)

by Ternvig at Thu Nov 11, 2021 01:19 AM

Trade Deadline is when the week 9 sim is completed

Tucson Toros (Teutoberg)
Tucson Block

Tennessee Militia (Aamalin)
Militia Block

Miami Talons (bbriders)
Miami Talons Block

Alaska Kodiaks (Marven)
Backup QB's

Detroit Vampires (zenzog)
Detroit 2062 Trade Block

Fargo Sodbusters (Ushikawa)
FAR Deadline Block -RB

Las Vegas Rounders (TurfToe)
Las Vegas 2062 Block - CBs

Shreveport Pride (Raven Hawk)
Shreveport Trade Block - 2062

Boston Blizzard (slimmikey)
1.32 looking to trade down

New Orleans Voodoo (BGBob)
Young Bowl Winning QB Available

San Antonio Stingers (hbcook86)
San Antonio trade block (Pre Draft)

Boston Blizzard (slimmikey)
Boston's Updated Trade Block

Santa Cruz Privateers (Cheesehead Craig)
Santa Cruz 2062 Block (hint: it's draft picks)

Oregon Bandits (mac88)
Oregon mid season block

El Paso Rockets (landshark44)
El Paso Block 2062